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Burton Albion
League One | Gameweek 33
Feb 27, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Pirelli Stadium
Carlisle United

Burton Albion
0 - 1
Carlisle

FT(HT: 0-1)
Huntington (27')
Diamond (12'), Vela (86')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's League One clash between Burton Albion and Carlisle United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Burton Albion 0-2 Northampton
Saturday, February 24 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Bristol Rovers 2-1 Carlisle
Saturday, February 24 at 3pm in League One

We said: Burton Albion 1-0 Carlisle United

Carlisle may have already had Burton's number this season, but the Cumbrians have only been on a downward trajectory since, and Burton have prided themselves on diligent defensive displays at the Pirelli Stadium. With weekend fatigue also setting in, a classic should not be in store, but a solitary goal - likely to come the way of the hosts - could prove the difference once again. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burton Albion win with a probability of 40.82%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 32.46% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Burton Albion win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.58%) and 2-0 (7.3%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (9.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.69%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood.

Result
Burton AlbionDrawCarlisle United
40.82% (-0.409 -0.41) 26.72% (-0.174 -0.17) 32.46% (0.582 0.58)
Both teams to score 51.22% (0.73 0.73)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.28% (0.845 0.84)53.72% (-0.848 -0.85)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.8% (0.705 0.7)75.2% (-0.709 -0.71)
Burton Albion Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.11% (0.17 0.17)25.89% (-0.173 -0.17)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.12% (0.22799999999999 0.23)60.88% (-0.23 -0.23)
Carlisle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.11% (0.827 0.83)30.89% (-0.829 -0.83)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.82% (0.962 0.96)67.18% (-0.964 -0.96)
Score Analysis
    Burton Albion 40.81%
    Carlisle United 32.46%
    Draw 26.71%
Burton AlbionDrawCarlisle United
1-0 @ 10.8% (-0.31 -0.31)
2-1 @ 8.58% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
2-0 @ 7.3% (-0.172 -0.17)
3-1 @ 3.86% (0.017 0.02)
3-0 @ 3.29% (-0.061 -0.06)
3-2 @ 2.27% (0.061 0.06)
4-1 @ 1.31% (0.012 0.01)
4-0 @ 1.11% (-0.015 -0.01)
Other @ 2.3%
Total : 40.81%
1-1 @ 12.69% (-0.07 -0.07)
0-0 @ 8% (-0.269 -0.27)
2-2 @ 5.04% (0.111 0.11)
Other @ 0.98%
Total : 26.71%
0-1 @ 9.4% (-0.097999999999999 -0.1)
1-2 @ 7.46% (0.129 0.13)
0-2 @ 5.52% (0.068000000000001 0.07)
1-3 @ 2.92% (0.115 0.12)
0-3 @ 2.16% (0.075 0.08)
2-3 @ 1.97% (0.087 0.09)
Other @ 3.04%
Total : 32.46%

How you voted: Burton Albion vs Carlisle

Burton Albion
71.2%
Draw
8.5%
Carlisle United
20.3%
59
Head to Head
Oct 24, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 15
Carlisle
2-1
Burton Albion
Gibson (53'), Garner (88')
Garner (77')
Helm (28')
Hamer (25'), Maamria (26'), Helm (36'), Lubala (77')
Oct 21, 2014 7.45pm
Carlisle
3-4
Burton Albion
Dempsey (12'), Potts (45'), Asamoah (65')
White (51')
McCrory (5'), Bell (27'), Blyth (40'), MacDonald (45')
MacDonald (51'), Beavon (58')
Beavon (90')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Portsmouth432613472373591
2Derby CountyDerby442681075373886
3Bolton WanderersBolton432410979463382
4Peterborough UnitedPeterborough422381180552577
5Barnsley4321121077572075
6Oxford UnitedOxford Utd4321101276532373
7Blackpool4420101460431770
8Lincoln CityLincoln4318141162372568
9Stevenage4418131354441067
10Leyton Orient441711165053-362
11Northampton TownNorthampton44178195563-859
12Exeter CityExeter441610184358-1558
13Wigan AthleticWigan441810165955456
14Wycombe WanderersWycombe421413155352155
15Bristol Rovers43159195164-1354
16Charlton AthleticCharlton441119146363052
17Reading441511186365-250
18Cambridge UnitedCambridge421210203858-2046
19Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury43137233161-3046
20Burton Albion431110223560-2543
21Port Vale431010234070-3040
22Cheltenham TownCheltenham42108243560-2538
23Fleetwood TownFleetwood43813224468-2437
RCarlisle UnitedCarlisle4479284076-3630


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