Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 46.64%. A draw had a probability of 27.2% and a win for Portimonense had a probability of 26.18%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.14%) and 2-1 (8.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.73%), while for a Portimonense win it was 0-1 (9.17%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.
Result | ||
Arouca | Draw | Portimonense |
46.64% ( 0.49) | 27.19% ( -0.13) | 26.18% ( -0.36) |
Both teams to score 46.52% ( 0.09) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
41.87% ( 0.25) | 58.13% ( -0.25) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
21.21% ( 0.19) | 78.79% ( -0.19) |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.06% ( 0.35) | 24.94% ( -0.35) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
40.43% ( 0.48) | 59.57% ( -0.49) |
Portimonense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
61.98% ( -0.17) | 38.02% ( 0.17) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.21% ( -0.17) | 74.79% ( 0.17) |
Score Analysis |
Arouca | Draw | Portimonense |
1-0 @ 13.16% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 9.14% ( 0.1) 2-1 @ 8.84% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 4.23% ( 0.09) 3-1 @ 4.09% ( 0.07) 3-2 @ 1.98% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 1.47% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 1.42% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.29% Total : 46.63% | 1-1 @ 12.73% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 9.48% ( -0.09) 2-2 @ 4.28% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.7% Total : 27.18% | 0-1 @ 9.17% ( -0.13) 1-2 @ 6.16% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 4.43% ( -0.09) 1-3 @ 1.99% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 1.43% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 1.38% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.63% Total : 26.18% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 43 | 10 | 33 | 37 |
2 | Porto | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 36 | 9 | 27 | 37 |
3 | Benfica | 14 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 34 | 8 | 26 | 35 |
4 | Braga | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 16 | 11 | 28 |
5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 15 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 27 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 22 |
7 | Casa Pia | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 20 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 20 |
9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 19 |
10 | Gil Vicente | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 17 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 14 |
13 | AVS | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 13 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 12 |
15 | Nacional | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 12 |
16 | Estrela Amadora | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 12 |
17 | SC FarenseFarense | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 12 |
18 | AroucaArouca | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 26 | -17 | 11 |
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