Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heidenheim win with a probability of 42.85%. A win for Holstein Kiel had a probability of 31.99% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heidenheim win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.98%) and 2-0 (7.06%). The likeliest Holstein Kiel win was 0-1 (7.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.88%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Heidenheim would win this match.
