Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 56.66%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 22.56% and a draw had a probability of 20.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.55%) and 1-0 (7.15%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 1-2 (5.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.1%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood.