Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 54.98%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 23.78% and a draw had a probability of 21.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.41%) and 1-0 (7.21%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 (6.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.