Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 43.21%. A win for Brisbane Roar had a probability of 34.18% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.15%) and 0-2 (5.52%). The likeliest Brisbane Roar win was 2-1 (7.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.71%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood.