Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Macarthur win with a probability of 40.59%. A win for Melbourne City had a probability of 37.96% and a draw had a probability of 21.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Macarthur win was 2-1 with a probability of 7.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.01%) and 3-2 (4.61%). The likeliest Melbourne City win was 1-2 (7.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Macarthur would win this match.
Result | ||
Macarthur | Draw | Melbourne City |
40.59% ( 0.28) | 21.45% ( -0.01) | 37.96% ( -0.27) |
Both teams to score 71.61% ( 0.02) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
72.22% ( 0.03) | 27.77% ( -0.03) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
51.54% ( 0.04) | 48.46% ( -0.04) |
Macarthur Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.13% ( 0.11) | 14.87% ( -0.12) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
56.79% ( 0.22) | 43.2% ( -0.23) |
Melbourne City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.12% ( -0.1) | 15.88% ( 0.09) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
54.89% ( -0.18) | 45.1% ( 0.17) |
Score Analysis |
Macarthur | Draw | Melbourne City |
2-1 @ 7.89% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 5.01% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 4.61% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 4.5% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 4.29% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 2.73% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 2.39% ( 0.03) 4-2 @ 2.2% ( 0.02) 4-3 @ 1.35% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.3% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 0.91% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.41% Total : 40.59% | 1-1 @ 8.28% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 7.26% ( -0) 3-3 @ 2.83% ( 0) 0-0 @ 2.36% ( -0) Other @ 0.72% Total : 21.45% | 1-2 @ 7.62% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 4.67% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 4.45% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 4.34% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 4% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 2.45% ( -0.03) 1-4 @ 2.15% ( -0.02) 2-4 @ 2.05% ( -0.01) 3-4 @ 1.3% ( -0) 0-4 @ 1.13% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.8% Total : 37.96% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 31 | 21 | 10 | 28 |
2 | Auckland FC | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 27 |
3 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 13 | 8 | 24 |
4 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 20 | 6 | 24 |
5 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 24 | 8 | 21 |
6 | Macarthur | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 20 | 8 | 21 |
7 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 17 | 3 | 19 |
8 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 29 | 26 | 3 | 18 |
9 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 17 |
10 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 17 |
11 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 10 |
12 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 35 | -26 | 8 |
13 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 16 | 30 | -14 | 5 |
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