Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 41.68%. A win for Western United had a probability of 35.05% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.73%) and 2-0 (5.69%). The likeliest Western United win was 1-2 (7.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wellington Phoenix would win this match.