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Wellington Phoenix
Australian A-League | Gameweek 10
Jan 2, 2023 at 2am UK
Westpac Stadium
Melbourne City

Wellington
1 - 3
Melbourne City

Ball (16')
Ugarkovic (28')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Leckie (18'), MacLaren (51' pen., 90+6')
Bos (7'), Good (22'), van der Venne (70')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Australian A-League clash between Wellington Phoenix and Melbourne City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Perth Glory 1-1 Wellington
Friday, December 23 at 11.30am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Melbourne City 1-0 Central Coast
Tuesday, December 27 at 6.30am in Australian A-League

We said: Wellington Phoenix 0-1 Melbourne City

Melbourne City have often eased past the challenge of whoever has gone against them this season, but Monday's fixture is set to be far from straightforward for the current A-League leaders. However, we still fancy them to get the job done come the sound of the full-time whistle. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 59.9%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 19.19%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.25%) and 0-1 (9.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.69%), while for a Wellington Phoenix win it was 2-1 (5.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.

Result
Wellington PhoenixDrawMelbourne City
19.19% (0.11 0.11) 20.91% (0.064 0.06) 59.9% (-0.173 -0.17)
Both teams to score 57.32% (-0.025000000000006 -0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.36% (-0.127 -0.13)39.63% (0.127 0.13)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.02% (-0.131 -0.13)61.98% (0.131 0.13)
Wellington Phoenix Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.79% (0.036999999999992 0.04)34.21% (-0.035999999999994 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.09% (0.039000000000001 0.04)70.9% (-0.038999999999987 -0.04)
Melbourne City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.12% (-0.087999999999994 -0.09)12.87% (0.087999999999999 0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
60.73% (-0.182 -0.18)39.27% (0.183 0.18)
Score Analysis
    Wellington Phoenix 19.19%
    Melbourne City 59.9%
    Draw 20.91%
Wellington PhoenixDrawMelbourne City
2-1 @ 5.2% (0.023000000000001 0.02)
1-0 @ 4.73% (0.032999999999999 0.03)
2-0 @ 2.53% (0.02 0.02)
3-2 @ 1.9% (0.004 0)
3-1 @ 1.86% (0.011 0.01)
3-0 @ 0.91% (0.008 0.01)
Other @ 2.06%
Total : 19.19%
1-1 @ 9.69% (0.034000000000001 0.03)
2-2 @ 5.32% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
0-0 @ 4.4% (0.026 0.03)
3-3 @ 1.3% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 0.2%
Total : 20.91%
1-2 @ 9.93% (0.00099999999999945 0)
0-2 @ 9.25% (-0.0079999999999991 -0.01)
0-1 @ 9.03% (0.022 0.02)
1-3 @ 6.78% (-0.023 -0.02)
0-3 @ 6.32% (-0.027 -0.03)
2-3 @ 3.64% (-0.008 -0.01)
1-4 @ 3.48% (-0.024 -0.02)
0-4 @ 3.24% (-0.025 -0.02)
2-4 @ 1.86% (-0.011 -0.01)
1-5 @ 1.43% (-0.014 -0.01)
0-5 @ 1.33% (-0.015 -0.01)
Other @ 3.62%
Total : 59.9%

How you voted: Wellington vs Melbourne City

Wellington Phoenix
4.2%
Draw
12.5%
Melbourne City
83.3%
24
Head to Head
Oct 30, 2022 6am
May 9, 2022 10.05am
Melbourne City
2-1
Wellington
Sutton (3' og.), MacLaren (10')
Nabbout (30'), Tilio (54'), MacLaren (56'), Jenkinson (83')
Waine (54')
Piscopo (81'), Waine (90+2')
Apr 2, 2022 6.35am
Wellington
0-6
Melbourne City

Pennington (87'), Ball (90')
Surman (17' og.), Leckie (50'), Nabbout (59'), Good (68'), Tilio (76', 81')
May 16, 2021 7.05am
Melbourne City
2-2
Wellington
Tsubaki (58'), MacLaren (81')
O'Neill (90')
Hemed (37' pen., 88')
Lewis (79'), Hemed (89'), McGarry (90')
Apr 5, 2021 10.10am
Wellington
2-3
Melbourne City
Hemed (39'), Davila (56')
Fenton (58'), Laws (62'), Devlin (88')
Good (17'), MacLaren (45'), Tilio (83')
Berenguer (55')
rhs 2.0
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