Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 59.9%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 19.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.25%) and 0-1 (9.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.69%), while for a Wellington Phoenix win it was 2-1 (5.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.