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Wellington Phoenix
Australian A-League | 2nd Leg
May 18, 2024 at 7.30am UK
Westpac Stadium
Melbourne Victory

Wellington
1 - 2
Victory

Zawada (90+9')
Salas (90+1')
FT
(aet)
Traore (82'), Ikonomidis (102')
Arzani (30'), Chapman (97')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Australian A-League clash between Wellington Phoenix and Melbourne Victory, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Victory 0-0 Wellington
Sunday, May 12 at 7am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Victory 0-0 Wellington
Sunday, May 12 at 7am in Australian A-League

We say: Wellington Phoenix 1-2 Melbourne Victory (Melbourne Victory to win 2-1 on aggregate)

With these two teams having each finished in the top three of the standings, we do not expect much between them in this second leg. However, with Melbourne having had more game time of late, we feel that their extra sharpness could prove key in securing a place in the final. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 46.33%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 29.96% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.23%) and 0-2 (7.01%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 (7.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.91%).

Result
Wellington PhoenixDrawMelbourne Victory
29.96% (-0.215 -0.22) 23.71% (-0.076000000000001 -0.08) 46.33% (0.291 0.29)
Both teams to score 60.09% (0.141 0.14)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.34% (0.244 0.24)41.65% (-0.246 -0.25)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.94% (0.247 0.25)64.05% (-0.248 -0.25)
Wellington Phoenix Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.47% (-0.019000000000005 -0.02)26.53% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.27% (-0.023000000000003 -0.02)61.73% (0.022999999999996 0.02)
Melbourne Victory Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.78% (0.212 0.21)18.22% (-0.213 -0.21)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.76% (0.363 0.36)49.23% (-0.363 -0.36)
Score Analysis
    Wellington Phoenix 29.96%
    Melbourne Victory 46.33%
    Draw 23.7%
Wellington PhoenixDrawMelbourne Victory
2-1 @ 7.25% (-0.037 -0.04)
1-0 @ 6.41% (-0.074 -0.07)
2-0 @ 4.25% (-0.052 -0.05)
3-1 @ 3.21% (-0.018 -0.02)
3-2 @ 2.73% (0.004 0)
3-0 @ 1.88% (-0.024 -0.02)
4-1 @ 1.06% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
4-2 @ 0.91%
Other @ 2.26%
Total : 29.96%
1-1 @ 10.91% (-0.06 -0.06)
2-2 @ 6.17% (0.010999999999999 0.01)
0-0 @ 4.83% (-0.053 -0.05)
3-3 @ 1.55% (0.013 0.01)
Other @ 0.24%
Total : 23.7%
1-2 @ 9.3% (0.021000000000001 0.02)
0-1 @ 8.23% (-0.034000000000001 -0.03)
0-2 @ 7.01% (0.019 0.02)
1-3 @ 5.28% (0.047 0.05)
0-3 @ 3.98% (0.038 0.04)
2-3 @ 3.5% (0.03 0.03)
1-4 @ 2.25% (0.036 0.04)
0-4 @ 1.69% (0.028 0.03)
2-4 @ 1.49% (0.023 0.02)
Other @ 3.61%
Total : 46.33%

How you voted: Wellington vs Victory

Wellington Phoenix
45.5%
Draw
18.2%
Melbourne Victory
36.4%
11
Head to Head
May 12, 2024 7am
Apr 12, 2024 8am
Gameweek 24
Wellington
1-0
Victory
Surman (90+5' og.)
Payne (31'), Ball (65')

Monge (34'), Da Silva (90+1')
Jan 19, 2024 6am
Gameweek 13
Wellington
1-1
Victory
Rufer (90+5' pen.)
Payne (45+8')
Chapman (79')
Traore (36')
Nov 10, 2023 8.45am
Gameweek 4
Victory
1-1
Wellington
Teague (14')
Geria (83')
Da Silva (41' og.)
Pennington (8'), Surman (18'), Kelly-Heald (45+4'), Payne (89')
Apr 1, 2023 3am
Gameweek 22
Wellington
1-2
Victory
Zawada (25')
Fornaroli (58'), Da Silva (76')
rhs 2.0
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