Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 55.99%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 22.79% and a draw had a probability of 21.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.81%) and 0-1 (7.62%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 2-1 (5.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.47%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.