Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 42.64%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 32.49% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.92%) and 0-2 (6.85%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 2-1 (7.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood.