Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 49.42%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 26.6% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.53%) and 2-0 (8.09%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 1-2 (6.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.26%). The actual scoreline of 5-3 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne Victory would win this match.