Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 41.71%. A win for Perth Glory had a probability of 35.47% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.19%) and 0-2 (5.4%). The likeliest Perth Glory win was 2-1 (7.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.87%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wellington Phoenix would win this match.