Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 45.75%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 31.03% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.42%) and 0-2 (6.5%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 (7.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood.