Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations | Third-Place Playoff

Feb 10, 2024 at 8pm UK

Stade de l'Amitie

South Africa
0 - 0
Congo DR

Tshibola (28')

South Africa win 6-5 on penalties

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Africa Cup of Nations clash between South Africa and Congo DR, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

South Africa

All competitions

Last Game: Nigeria 1-1 South Africa (4-2 pen.)
Wednesday, February 7 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations

Current Group E Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Mali	3	2	5
2	South Africa	3	2	4
3	Namibia	3	-3	4
4	Tunisia	3	-1	2

Congo DR

All competitions

Last Game: Ivory Coast 1-0 Congo DR
Wednesday, February 7 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Morocco	3	4	7
2	Congo DR	3	0	3
3	Zambia	3	-1	2
4	Tanzania	3	-3	2

We said: South Africa 1-2 Congo DR

Having played 120 minutes in consecutive games, South Africa running out of gas could be exploited by DR Congo to claim third in the continental showpiece. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a South Africa win with a probability of 44.93%. A draw had a probability of 29.8% and a win for Congo DR had a probability of 25.26%.

The most likely scoreline for a South Africa win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.54%) and 2-1 (7.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.12%), while for a Congo DR win it was 0-1 (10.82%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood.

Result
South Africa	Draw	Congo DR
44.93%	29.81%	25.26%

Both teams to score 39.34%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

33.15%

66.84%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

14.84%

85.16%

South Africa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.04%

29.95%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.93%

66.06%

Congo DR Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

56.17%

43.82%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

20.02%

79.98%

Score Analysis

South Africa 44.92%

Congo DR 25.25%

Draw 29.8%

South Africa	Draw	Congo DR
1-0 @ 15.82% 2-0 @ 9.54% 2-1 @ 7.87% 3-0 @ 3.83% 3-1 @ 3.16% 3-2 @ 1.3% 4-0 @ 1.16% 4-1 @ 0.95% Other @ 1.29% Total : 44.92%	0-0 @ 13.12% 1-1 @ 13.05% 2-2 @ 3.25% Other @ 0.38% Total : 29.8%	0-1 @ 10.82% 1-2 @ 5.39% 0-2 @ 4.47% 1-3 @ 1.48% 0-3 @ 1.23% Other @ 1.87% Total : 25.25%