Round 10 of the 2021-22 Eredivisie season concludes at the Euroborg on Sunday, as Groningen face off against AZ Alkmaar.
The teams head into the game in contrasting forms, with the hosts seeking to end an eight-game winless run, while their visitors are looking to pick up a fifth consecutive win across all competitions.
Match preview
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AZ Alkmaar claimed a second straight league win on home turf courtesy of an emphatic 5-1 victory over FC Utrecht at the AFAS Stadion on Sunday.
Vangelis Pavlidis, Albert Gudmundsson, Dani De Wit and Jesper Karlsson were all on the scoresheet to put Pascal Jansen's men in the box seat before Quinten Timber pulled one back for his side late on.
Having amassed nine points from the last nine possible, the Cheeseheads have climbed into the top half of the Eredivisie table and are just three points off the last European place.
AZ also eased past Romanian outfit CFR Cluj 1-0 on Thursday to take top spot in Group D of the Conference League midway through the group stage.
Looking to record a first victory in this fixture since 2019, Sunday's visitors have hit their stride off the back of a rough start to the season and will be confident of coming out on top.
Groningen were involved in a share of the spoils for the second game running following a 1-1 draw versus Sparta Rotterdam at the Het Kasteel on Sunday.
Danny Buijs's men took the lead just shy of the half-hour mark through Cyril Ngonge, but parity was restored five minutes later thanks to Bryan Smeets.
The Pride of the North are winless since beating newly-promoted Cambuur on the opening weekend and continue to languish in the bottom zone.
Sunday's hosts, who last won a home league game in February, will be keen to take advantage of the home crowd this weekend and get their season back on track.
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Team News
Laros Duarte made his comeback from injury last time out, and the 24-year-old is expected to be named in the starting XI once again.
Mike te Wierik remains sidelined with a foot injury, while Radinio Balker is yet to feature this term due to a cruciate ligament injury.
Jesper Karlsson has found the back of the net in each of his last two games and heads into this weekend's match with the wind in his sails.
Pascal Jansen might contemplate making some changes to his Thursday team in a bid to keep the energy levels high, and this could see the likes of Tijjani Reijnders get the nod.
Groningen possible starting lineup:
Leeuwenburgh; Dammers, Kasanwirjo, Dankerlui; Van Hintum, El Hankouri, Suslov, Duarte; De Leeuw, Ngonge, Strand Larsen
AZ Alkmaar possible starting lineup:
Vindahl; Wijndal, Martins Indi, Chatzidiakos, Sugawara; Midtsjo, Clasie, De Wit; Karlsson, Pavlidis, Gudmundsson
We say: Groningen 1-2 AZ Alkmaar
AZ are the more in-form side coming into the game, and the onus will be on them to seize the initiative and claim all three points. We expect Groningen to put up a good fight, but we are backing the away side to emerge victorious.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 53.72%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Groningen had a probability of 20.91%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.7%) and 1-2 (9.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.91%), while for a Groningen win it was 1-0 (7.59%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood.
