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Birmingham logo
Championship | Gameweek 2
Aug 14, 2021 at 3pm UK
St Andrew's
Stoke logo

Birmingham
0 - 0
Stoke


Hogan (49')
FT

Clucas (57'), Powell (67')

Preview: Birmingham City vs. Stoke City - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Birmingham City and Stoke City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Both winners on the Championship's opening day, Birmingham City meet Stoke City at St Andrew's on Saturday, with the pair seeking to extend their successful starts to the campaign.

After adding Carabao Cup victory to league wins last weekend, the Midlands rivals will now go head-to-head for another three points.


Match preview

Birmingham City's Scott Hogan celebrates scoring their first goal against Swansea City in the Championship on April 2, 2021© Reuters

Coming into the season with confidence renewed, last season's relegation battlers Birmingham City have been a team transformed under the management of former Charlton boss Lee Bowyer, who guided them to safety last year.

Though the Blues' place in the Championship looked in serious jeopardy for much of a troubled campaign under Aitor Karanka, their fortunes changed when Bowyer stepped into the dugout and guided them to a relatively comfortable 18th-placed finish.

The former Birmingham midfielder's first full season in charge has started well too, after an early goal from Maxime Colin earned his side a backs-against-the-wall victory at Bramall Lane on the Championship's opening day; having had only a quarter of the ball and conceded 16 shots on target to Sheffield United.

League Two side Colchester were their next victims, in midweek, when Blues returned to St Andrew's in the first round of the EFL Cup. The U's stubborn resistance was only broken by a 75th-minute winner for the home side, just as it appeared that the tie was heading for penalties.

Marcel Oakley's deflected winner finally broke the deadlock and edged Bowyer's men through to the next round - where they will meet Fulham later this month - providing a morale boost ahead of Saturday's game.

Stoke City boss Michael O'Neill on December 10, 2019© Reuters

Stoke make the short journey to the Second City in a similar vein of form, but will recall their 2-0 defeat the last time the two teams met in B9, just four months ago.

On that occasion, they dominated the ball but were stung by a pair of Lukas Jutkiewicz strikes, so will be wary of succumbing to the same fate this weekend.

So far, Sam Surridge has starred in the Potters' positive start to the 2021-22 campaign, having scored his second goal in as many games since joining from Bournemouth as his new team edged past Fleetwood Town and into the second round of the EFL Cup in midweek.

Surridge, who netted the winner against Reading on his Championship debut last Saturday, struck with the game's first attempt on target and Stoke ultimately sealed progress when Harry Souttar headed in a second late on. In addition to his 85th-minute goal versus Reading - at the climax of a memorable encounter enlivened by Stoke's first home crowd for nearly 18 months - it has been a dream start to life in a squad astutely overseen by Michael O'Neill.

The former Northern Ireland manager will be concerned, though, that the Royals were twice able to come from behind in that breathless 3-2 victory, so is sure to have been working on his defence in the brief build-up to the Birmingham game.

Birmingham City Championship form:
  • W

Birmingham City form (all competitions):
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • W

Stoke City Championship form:
  • W

Stoke City form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • W



Team News

Brentford's Sergi Canos and Birmingham's Neil Etheridge in action in the Championship on April 6, 2021© Reuters

Blues boss Lee Bowyer is expected to be without the services of first-choice goalkeeper Neil Etheridge once again, with the former Fulham man having only just returned to training after self-isolating with COVID-19. On-loan stopper Matija Sarkic should start in his place, though Connal Trueman deputised in the Carabao Cup and is also a contender.

Winger Tahith Chong - who recently joined on a one-year loan deal from Manchester United - is set to be assessed after suffering a hamstring issue last weekend and may not be risked, with Ivan Sanchez and Jordan Graham two of the midweek starters hoping to take his spot in the league lineup.

Bowyer will have midfielder Ivan Sunjic available though, after he returned to the first team on Tuesday, having missed most of pre-season through injury.

The former Charlton coach's counterpart Michael O'Neill made several notable additions in the summer - signing Sam Surridge, Ben Wilmot and Mario Vrancic to replace a raft of departures - and the former could make his first league start for Stoke on Saturday.

Just 12 minutes after his introduction last week, Surridge secured three points for his new team, then started the cup tie against Fleetwood and scored again. However, he will have to see off competition from Steven Fletcher and Jacob Brown for a spot in the forward pairing.

Their fellow forward Tyrese Campbell is expected to be the visitors' only absentee, as he remains out of action with a long-term knee injury.

Birmingham City possible starting lineup:
Sarkic; Colin, Roberts, Dean, Pedersen; Bela, Woods, Sunjic, Sanchez; Leko, Jutkiewicz

Stoke City possible starting lineup:
Bursik; Wilmot, Souttar, Fox; Smith, Vrancic, Allen, Powell, Tymon; Fletcher, Surridge


SM words green background

We say: Birmingham City 1-2 Stoke City

Something must give after two wins from two for either side, and Stoke - whose clever signings and clearance of overpaid pros could transform their fortunes this term - are the most likely to continue their flawless run.

Though Lee Bowyer takes pride in his team's defensive solidity, the visitors possess enough individual quality to pick them off on a couple of occasions and take maximum points back to the Potteries.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data



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Written by
Jonathan O'Shea

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 49.13%. A draw had a probability of 27.5% and a win for Birmingham City had a probability of 23.37%.

The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.14%) and 1-2 (8.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.62%), while for a Birmingham City win it was 1-0 (9.11%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Birmingham vs Stoke

Birmingham City
36.4%
Draw
25.5%
Stoke City
38.2%
55
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Birmingham City manager Lee Bowyer pictured on March 17, 2021
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11Charlton AthleticCharlton207672319427
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13Exeter CityExeter208391922-327
14Stevenage197571517-226
15Leyton Orient207492320325
16Peterborough UnitedPeterborough2073103837124
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