Champions League

Champions League | Group Stage

Oct 3, 2023 at 5.45pm UK

Helsingin olympiastadion

Union Berlin
2 - 3
Braga

Becker (30', 37')
Bonucci (13'), Leite (54'), Juranovic (90+5')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Niakate (41'), Bruma (51'), Castro (90+4')
Horta (13'), Banza (46'), Zalazar (72')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between Union Berlin and Braga, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Union Berlin

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Heidenheim 1-0 Union Berlin
Saturday, September 30 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Braga

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Estrela Amadora 2-4 Braga
Thursday, September 28 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Union Berlin 1-2 Braga

Union Berlin are in need of a big result to act as a springboard amid their disappointing form, but we are finding it very difficult to back them at the moment. Braga are full of quality in the final third of the field, and we are expecting the Portuguese side to claim all three points on Tuesday night. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 46.01%. A win for Union Berlin had a probability of 28.65% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.23%) and 0-2 (7.99%). The likeliest Union Berlin win was 1-0 (7.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.03%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.

Result
Union Berlin	Draw	Braga
28.65% ( 0.02)	25.34% ( 0)	46.01% ( -0.02)

Both teams to score 53.74% (

0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.39% (

0.01)

49.6% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.37% (

0.01)

71.63% (

-0.01)

Union Berlin Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.52% (

0.02)

31.48% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.14% (

0.03)

67.86% (

-0.02)

Braga Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.43% (

-0)

21.56% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.35% (

-0.01)

54.64% (

0.01)

Score Analysis

Union Berlin 28.65%

Braga 46.01%

Draw 25.33%

Union Berlin	Draw	Braga
1-0 @ 7.85% ( 0) 2-1 @ 6.96% ( 0) 2-0 @ 4.53% ( 0) 3-1 @ 2.68% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.06% ( 0) 3-0 @ 1.75% ( 0) Other @ 2.83% Total : 28.65%	1-1 @ 12.03% 0-0 @ 6.79% ( -0) 2-2 @ 5.34% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.05% ( 0) Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.33%	0-1 @ 10.41% 1-2 @ 9.23% ( -0) 0-2 @ 7.99% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 4.72% ( -0) 0-3 @ 4.09% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.73% 1-4 @ 1.81% ( -0) 0-4 @ 1.57% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.05% Other @ 2.41% Total : 46.01%