Championship | Gameweek 18
Nov 21, 2021 at 12pm UK
Pride Park
Derby3 - 2Bournemouth
Bournemouth head into Sunday's fixture at Derby County looking to return to the top of the Championship standings.
At a time when the Cherries hold a two-point advantage at the top, Derby are 18 points adrift of safety after their latest points deduction.
Match preview
Despite the ambition that Wayne Rooney possessed when taking the job at Derby, the England legend has been forced to accept that the Rams will likely only go backwards over the next six months. Being docked a further nine points has left Derby with 29 matches to try to overturn an 18-point deficit, as well as needing to move above three teams in the process. In reality, Derby are now playing for pride, and that is something which has started to come natural to this group of players who have posted draws in five of their last seven games. The two defeats during that period have come by 2-1 scorelines, to Blackburn Rovers and Barnsley respectively, but Derby have at least laid some foundations to go all out for victories over the coming weeks. While facing Bournemouth and second-placed Fulham in the space of three days is as hard as it could have been, it gives Rooney and his players an opportunity to express themselves in the face of adversity. That is how Scott Parker may have felt after witnessing Bournemouth lose their long unbeaten record against Preston North End at the start of the month. The Cherries responded by thrashing a resurgent Swansea City side by a 4-0 scoreline, Dominic Solanke now having 13 goals for the season courtesy of another double. Winger Jaidon Anthony ended a drought with two goals of his own, and Bournemouth will travel to the East Midlands determined to put on another statement performance. While Parker will want three points by any means necessary, the Englishman will want to preserve a hugely-impressive unbeaten away record with 20 points coming from eight games and just one goal being conceded.Derby County Championship form:
- D
- D
- D
- L
- L
- D
Bournemouth Championship form:
- W
- W
- W
- W
- L
- W
Team News
Ben Pearson will hope to take the place of Gavin Kilkenny in the Bournemouth midfield after recovering from concussion. The remainder of the starting lineup could stay the same with Jamal Lowe unlikely to replace Ryan Christie on the right flank. Derby will be without right-back Nathan Byrne, who was sent off for two yellow cards during the draw with Millwall. In a reshuffle, Festy Ebosele could deputise at right-back, Jason Knight may switch to right-midfield, and Colin Kazim-Richards should return in attack. Louie Sibley will also be considered, depending on whether Rooney wishes to have one or two players leading the line. Derby County possible starting lineup: Roos; Ebosele, Davies, Jagielka, Buchanan; Knight, Shinnie, Bird, Lawrence; Baldock, Kazim-Richards Bournemouth possible starting lineup: Travers; Stacey, Cahill, Kelly, Davis; Pearson, Lerma, Billing; Christie, Solanke, AnthonyWe said: Derby County 0-3 Bournemouth
On the back of their latest punishment, Derby's fans will likely respond by producing a passionate atmosphere at Pride Park, Nevertheless, we still expect Bournemouth to run away with this one, a fast start helping a comfortable 90 minutes for the visitors. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bournemouth win with a probability of 54.63%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 20.38%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bournemouth win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.82%) and 1-2 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.76%), while for a Derby County win it was 1-0 (7.34%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Derby County | Draw | Bournemouth |
| 20.38% | 24.99% | 54.63% |
| Both teams to score 46.44% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
