Championship

Championship | Gameweek 25

Dec 30, 2021 at 7.45pm UK

bet365 Stadium

Stoke
1 - 2
Derby

Ince (78')
Wilmot (16'), Vrancic (61'), Tymon (71')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Plange (16'), Kazim-Richards (85')
Plange (59')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Championship clash between Stoke City and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

We said: Stoke City 1-1 Derby County

Regardless of the three-day turnaround, Derby should only benefit from taking on a team without match practice. All things considered, however, everything points to this contest ending in a low-scoring draw, a result which would not suit either club. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 47.91%. A draw had a probability of 28% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 24.11%.

The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.92%) and 2-1 (8.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.76%), while for a Derby County win it was 0-1 (9.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.

Result
Stoke City	Draw	Derby County
47.91%	27.98%	24.11%

Both teams to score 42.79%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

37.96%

62.04%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

18.24%

81.76%

Stoke City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.91%

26.09%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.86%

61.14%

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

57.9%

42.1%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

21.47%

78.52%

Score Analysis

Stoke City 47.9%

Derby County 24.11%

Draw 27.97%

Stoke City	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 14.75% 2-0 @ 9.92% 2-1 @ 8.58% 3-0 @ 4.44% 3-1 @ 3.84% 3-2 @ 1.66% 4-0 @ 1.49% 4-1 @ 1.29% Other @ 1.93% Total : 47.9%	1-1 @ 12.76% 0-0 @ 10.98% 2-2 @ 3.71% Other @ 0.52% Total : 27.97%	0-1 @ 9.5% 1-2 @ 5.52% 0-2 @ 4.11% 1-3 @ 1.59% 0-3 @ 1.19% 2-3 @ 1.07% Other @ 1.13% Total : 24.11%