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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 37.82%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 33.82% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.88%) and 0-2 (7.11%). The likeliest Derby County win was 1-0 (11.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.
Result | ||
Derby County | Draw | Stoke City |
33.82% | 28.35% | 37.82% |
Both teams to score 46.6% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
40.35% | 59.65% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
20.03% | 79.97% |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.99% | 33% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30.41% | 69.59% |
Stoke City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.56% | 30.44% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.36% | 66.64% |
Score Analysis |
Derby County | Draw | Stoke City |
1-0 @ 11.13% 2-1 @ 7.34% 2-0 @ 6.17% 3-1 @ 2.71% 3-0 @ 2.28% 3-2 @ 1.61% Other @ 2.57% Total : 33.82% | 1-1 @ 13.24% 0-0 @ 10.04% 2-2 @ 4.37% Other @ 0.7% Total : 28.34% | 0-1 @ 11.94% 1-2 @ 7.88% 0-2 @ 7.11% 1-3 @ 3.12% 0-3 @ 2.82% 2-3 @ 1.73% 1-4 @ 0.93% Other @ 2.29% Total : 37.81% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 22 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 32 | 11 | 21 | 48 |
2 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 41 | 15 | 26 | 45 |
3 | Burnley | 22 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 28 | 9 | 19 | 44 |
4 | Sunderland | 22 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 34 | 18 | 16 | 43 |
5 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 18 | 7 | 37 |
6 | Middlesbrough | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 38 | 28 | 10 | 35 |
7 | Watford | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 30 | 28 | 2 | 34 |
8 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 21 | 7 | 11 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 32 |
9 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 28 | 30 | -2 | 32 |
10 | Millwall | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 21 | 18 | 3 | 28 |
11 | Bristol City | 21 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 27 |
12 | Swansea CitySwansea | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 27 |
13 | Norwich CityNorwich | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 37 | 34 | 3 | 26 |
14 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 22 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 25 |
15 | Luton TownLuton | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 25 | 38 | -13 | 25 |
16 | Derby CountyDerby | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 27 | 28 | -1 | 24 |
17 | Coventry CityCoventry | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 24 |
18 | Preston North EndPreston | 22 | 4 | 11 | 7 | 22 | 29 | -7 | 23 |
19 | Stoke CityStoke | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 30 | -7 | 22 |
20 | Portsmouth | 20 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 25 | 35 | -10 | 20 |
21 | Hull City | 22 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 21 | 31 | -10 | 19 |
22 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 21 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 19 | 34 | -15 | 18 |
23 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 21 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 37 | -16 | 18 |
24 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 21 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 22 | 45 | -23 | 18 |
> Championship Full Table |