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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 66.94%. A draw had a probability of 18.8% and a win for Watford had a probability of 14.25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.81%) and 1-0 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.82%), while for a Watford win it was 1-2 (4.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Leeds United would win this match.
Result | ||
Leeds United | Draw | Watford |
66.94% ( -0.08) | 18.81% ( -0.01) | 14.25% ( 0.09) |
Both teams to score 53.65% ( 0.29) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
60.84% ( 0.26) | 39.16% ( -0.26) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
38.52% ( 0.27) | 61.48% ( -0.27) |
Leeds United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
89.18% ( 0.05) | 10.81% ( -0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
65.13% ( 0.11) | 34.87% ( -0.11) |
Watford Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
60.16% ( 0.29) | 39.84% ( -0.29) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
23.5% ( 0.27) | 76.5% ( -0.27) |
Score Analysis |
Leeds United | Draw | Watford |
2-0 @ 10.65% ( -0.09) 2-1 @ 9.81% ( 0) 1-0 @ 9.58% ( -0.1) 3-0 @ 7.9% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 7.27% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 4.39% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 4.04% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 3.35% ( 0.04) 5-0 @ 1.96% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.86% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 1.8% ( 0.01) Other @ 4.32% Total : 66.93% | 1-1 @ 8.82% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 4.51% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 4.31% ( -0.05) 3-3 @ 1.03% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.14% Total : 18.81% | 1-2 @ 4.06% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 3.97% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 1.82% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.39% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 1.25% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.77% Total : 14.25% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sunderland | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 31 |
2 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 31 |
3 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 24 | 9 | 15 | 29 |
4 | Burnley | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 18 | 6 | 12 | 27 |
5 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 15 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 25 |
6 | Watford | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 25 |
7 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 17 | 6 | 24 |
8 | Millwall | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 23 |
9 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 17 | 2 | 22 |
10 | Bristol City | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 22 |
11 | Swansea CitySwansea | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 19 |
12 | Derby CountyDerby | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 19 |
13 | Stoke CityStoke | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 19 |
14 | Norwich CityNorwich | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 18 |
15 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 18 |
16 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 17 |
17 | Coventry CityCoventry | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 16 |
18 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 16 |
19 | Hull City | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 15 |
20 | Preston North EndPreston | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 15 |
21 | Luton TownLuton | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 15 |
22 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 15 |
23 | Portsmouth | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 12 |
24 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 10 |
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