Without a win since November, mid-table Cheltenham Town welcome promotion chasers Plymouth Argyle to Whaddon Road on Boxing Day round.
The sides' penultimate fixture of 2021 sees the hosts seeking to halt a worrying decline in form, while their West Country visitors have also faltered recently but remain in the mix for a League One playoff place.
Match preview
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Cheltenham's wait for a win continued last weekend, as the Robins were defeated by 10-man Shrewsbury Town, who scored twice with one player short in a 3-1 victory at the New Meadow.
The home side may have been indebted to goalkeeper Marko Marosi for keeping things level during the first half, but Cheltenham manager Michael Duff will be ruing the goals his team went on to concede, as Daniel Udoh completed a brace for the Shrews - consigning the visitors to a third defeat in four games.
Despite playing just over half the game with an extra man - and firing in 27 shots on goal (with only nine hitting the target) - Cheltenham were unable to even pick up a point, which comes as further disappointment after a difficult spell of late.
A 5-0 defeat to Cambridge United earlier this month provided a harsh reality check for the Robins, before a 2-2 draw against Lincoln was only secured by an equaliser in the fifth minute of injury time.
Though they remain well-placed in the table - sitting 14th before the Boxing Day fixtures - Duff will undoubtedly be aware of the need to address his team's defensive deficiencies, after conceding 16 in their last five league and cup matches.
Following their League Two title triumph last season, Cheltenham have fared well enough this term, but to avoid being dragged towards the drop zone they will have to improve at the back. Never more so than on Sunday, when they face one of the division's top-scoring sides.
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Fifth in League One and targeting a return to the second tier of English football, Plymouth will nonetheless be concerned about a recent decline in results which threatens to take the shine off an impressive first half of the season.
Though still inside the playoff places, Argyle had managed only a single point from their previous five matches before hosting Charlton last week, so were mightily relieved to secure a 1-0 victory at Home Park.
As a result, they are just five points short of the automatic promotion spots - though have played at least one game more than most of their rivals - and new boss Steven Schumacher has a solid foundation to build on heading into the rest of the campaign.
Since taking over from Ryan Lowe earlier this month, his side have retained their possession-based principles, and after waiting two games to getting his first win, Schumacher will now be looking to make it back-to-back victories this weekend.
In a decision guaranteed to boost his popularity among the Argyle squad, the former Bradford midfielder has cancelled training on Christmas Day, ahead of a packed schedule in which the visit to Cheltenham will be the first of three matches in seven days.
Followed by home fixtures with Portsmouth and Wimbledon, the Pilgrims' Boxing Day outing will see them backed by 1,500 fans at Whaddon Road, having sold out their entire ticket allocation. Therefore, the pressure will be on to take advantage of a brittle home side.
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Team News
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With several other matches called off due to COVID-19 cases, to date Cheltenham have been relatively unaffected by the virus, and only have centre-back Will Boyle ruled out by injury, with his return expected to come early next month.
Michael Duff has recalled Elliot Bonds from Kidderminster Harriers, where he has impressed on loan, and the 21-year-old could be named on the bench.
Conor Thomas is another midfielder hopeful of breaking into the starting XI on Sunday, and he will compete with Liam Sercombe and Ellis Chapman for a place in the hosts' engine room.
Meanwhile, Plymouth have striker Niall Ennis finally ready to start again, after a long spell on the sidelines with an injured hamstring tendon.
Steven Schumacher has signified that Ennis - who has made four substitute appearances since returning to action, including replacing goalscorer Kieran Agard last week - can now be considered for a place up front, while James Bolton and George Cooper are also well along the road to recovery.
Full-back Brendan Galloway remains a long-term absentee for the Pilgrims, following his knee injury in late November. In his absence, Jordon Garrick demonstrated great versatility in the victory over Charlton last week; having featured as a forward or as a winger during his loan from Swansea City, Garrick started at left wing-back and should do so again at Cheltenham.
Cheltenham Town possible starting lineup:
Evans; Blair, Pollock, Long, Hussey; Sercombe, Chapman; May, Crowley, Joseph; Williams
Plymouth Argyle possible starting lineup:
M. Cooper; Gillesphey, Scarr, Wilson; Jephcott, Mayor, Houghton, Camara, Garrick; Hardie, Agard
We say: Cheltenham Town 1-2 Plymouth Argyle
The combination of Cheltenham's ongoing frailties at the back and a Plymouth side buoyed by their first win under new management means that the visitors should come away with maximum points from this Boxing Day contest.
If they can get ahead in the first half, then the ambitious Pilgrims will not be hauled back by their faltering hosts.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Plymouth Argyle win with a probability of 37.62%. A win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 36.53% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Plymouth Argyle win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.33%) and 0-2 (6.24%). The likeliest Cheltenham Town win was 1-0 (9.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.26%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Plymouth Argyle would win this match.
