Copa Sudamericana | First Round

Mar 7, 2023 at 10pm UK

Estadio Bicentenario de La Florida

Audax
3 - 2
Catolica

Sepulveda (19'), Sosa (56'), Fuentes (58')
Fernandez (8'), Labrin (29'), Juarez (65'), Rios (67'), Munoz (76'), Hachen (90')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Zampedri (16', 36')
Rovira (21'), Di Santo (90+6'), Cuevas (90+7')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana First Round clash between Audax Italiano and Universidad Catolica.

Form, Standings, Stats

Audax Italiano

Last Game: Estudiantes 2-0 Audax
Thursday, March 3 at 12.30am in Copa Libertadores

Universidad Catolica

Last Game: Sao Paulo 4-1 Catolica
Friday, July 8 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Audax Italiano win with a probability of 44.71%. A win for Universidad Catolica had a probability of 30.37% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.

The most likely scoreline for an Audax Italiano win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.17%) and 2-0 (7.39%). The likeliest Universidad Catolica win was 0-1 (7.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.76%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Audax Italiano would win this match.

Result
Audax Italiano	Draw	Universidad Catolica
44.71% ( 0.31)	24.92% ( -0.19)	30.37% ( -0.12)

Both teams to score 56.14% (

0.56)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.06% (

0.76)

46.94% (

-0.76)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.81% (

0.71)

69.19% (

-0.71)

Audax Italiano Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.96% (

0.46)

21.04% (

-0.46)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.17% (

0.71)

53.83% (

-0.71)

Universidad Catolica Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.1% (

0.3)

28.9% (

-0.3)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.23% (

0.37)

64.77% (

-0.37)

Score Analysis

Audax Italiano 44.71%

Universidad Catolica 30.37%

Draw 24.92%

Audax Italiano	Draw	Universidad Catolica
1-0 @ 9.48% ( -0.17) 2-1 @ 9.17% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 7.39% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 4.77% ( 0.09) 3-0 @ 3.84% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 2.96% ( 0.08) 4-1 @ 1.86% ( 0.06) 4-0 @ 1.5% ( 0.03) 4-2 @ 1.15% ( 0.05) Other @ 2.61% Total : 44.71%	1-1 @ 11.76% ( -0.11) 0-0 @ 6.08% ( -0.2) 2-2 @ 5.69% ( 0.07) 3-3 @ 1.22% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.92%	0-1 @ 7.55% ( -0.18) 1-2 @ 7.3% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 4.68% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 3.02% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 2.36% ( 0.05) 0-3 @ 1.94% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 0.94% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.58% Total : 30.37%