EFL Trophy | Second Round
Dec 5, 2023 at 7pm UK
Pride Park Stadium (Derby)
Derby3 - 0Fleetwood
Coverage of the EFL Trophy Second Round clash between Derby County and Fleetwood Town.
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Port Vale 0-1 Derby
Tuesday, November 28 at 7.45pm in League One
Tuesday, November 28 at 7.45pm in League One
Last Game: Cambridge 4-0 Fleetwood
Saturday, December 2 at 3pm in FA Cup
Saturday, December 2 at 3pm in FA Cup
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 60.88%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Fleetwood Town had a probability of 17.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.34%) and 2-1 (9.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.09%), while for a Fleetwood Town win it was 0-1 (5.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Derby County | Draw | Fleetwood Town |
60.88% ( 0.01) | 21.33% ( -0) | 17.79% ( -0) |
| Both teams to score 53.18% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.17% ( 0.02) | 43.82% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.79% ( 0.02) | 66.21% ( -0.01) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.07% ( 0.01) | 13.92% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 58.62% ( 0.02) | 41.38% ( -0.02) |
| Fleetwood Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.78% ( 0.01) | 38.21% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 25.02% ( 0) | 74.98% ( -0) |
| Score Analysis |
Derby County 60.88%
Fleetwood Town 17.79%
Draw 21.33%
| Derby County | Draw | Fleetwood Town |
| 1-0 @ 10.49% 2-0 @ 10.34% 2-1 @ 9.95% 3-0 @ 6.8% ( 0)3-1 @ 6.54% ( 0)4-0 @ 3.35% ( 0)4-1 @ 3.22% ( 0)3-2 @ 3.15% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.55% ( 0)5-0 @ 1.32% ( 0)5-1 @ 1.27% ( 0)Other @ 2.9% Total : 60.88% | 1-1 @ 10.09% 0-0 @ 5.32% ( -0)2-2 @ 4.79% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.01% Other @ 0.13% Total : 21.33% | 0-1 @ 5.12% ( -0) 1-2 @ 4.85% 0-2 @ 2.46% ( -0)1-3 @ 1.56% 2-3 @ 1.53% Other @ 2.26% Total : 17.79% |
How you voted: Derby vs Fleetwood
Derby County
82.4%Draw
11.8%Fleetwood Town
5.9%17
