EFL Trophy | Second Round

Dec 5, 2023 at 7pm UK

Pride Park Stadium (Derby)

Derby
3 - 0
Fleetwood

Collins (25', 77'), John-Jules (88')
Waghorn (43'), Hourihane (79')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Heneghan (18'), Earl (26'), Wiredu (35')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Coverage of the EFL Trophy Second Round clash between Derby County and Fleetwood Town.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions

EFL Trophy

Last Game: Port Vale 0-1 Derby
Tuesday, November 28 at 7.45pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Fleetwood Town

All competitions

EFL Trophy

Last Game: Cambridge 4-0 Fleetwood
Saturday, December 2 at 3pm in FA Cup

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 60.88%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Fleetwood Town had a probability of 17.79%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.34%) and 2-1 (9.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.09%), while for a Fleetwood Town win it was 0-1 (5.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby County	Draw	Fleetwood Town
60.88% ( 0.01)	21.33% ( -0)	17.79% ( -0)

Both teams to score 53.18% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.17% (

0.02)

43.82% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.79% (

0.02)

66.21% (

-0.01)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.07% (

0.01)

13.92% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

58.62% (

0.02)

41.38% (

-0.02)

Fleetwood Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.78% (

0.01)

38.21% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.02% (

74.98% (

-0)

Score Analysis

Derby County 60.88%

Fleetwood Town 17.79%

Draw 21.33%

Derby County	Draw	Fleetwood Town
1-0 @ 10.49% 2-0 @ 10.34% 2-1 @ 9.95% 3-0 @ 6.8% ( 0) 3-1 @ 6.54% ( 0) 4-0 @ 3.35% ( 0) 4-1 @ 3.22% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.15% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.55% ( 0) 5-0 @ 1.32% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1.27% ( 0) Other @ 2.9% Total : 60.88%	1-1 @ 10.09% 0-0 @ 5.32% ( -0) 2-2 @ 4.79% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.01% Other @ 0.13% Total : 21.33%	0-1 @ 5.12% ( -0) 1-2 @ 4.85% 0-2 @ 2.46% ( -0) 1-3 @ 1.56% 2-3 @ 1.53% Other @ 2.26% Total : 17.79%