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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 51.83%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for FC Utrecht had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.58%) and 0-2 (9.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.73%), while for a FC Utrecht win it was 1-0 (7.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for AZ Alkmaar in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for AZ Alkmaar.
Result | ||
FC Utrecht | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
23.5% ( 0.16) | 24.67% ( 0.02) | 51.83% ( -0.18) |
Both teams to score 51.27% ( 0.11) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.32% ( 0.06) | 50.67% ( -0.06) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.42% ( 0.05) | 72.58% ( -0.05) |
FC Utrecht Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
63.71% ( 0.17) | 36.29% ( -0.17) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
26.93% ( 0.18) | 73.07% ( -0.18) |
AZ Alkmaar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.46% ( -0.05) | 19.53% ( 0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
48.57% ( -0.08) | 51.43% ( 0.08) |
Score Analysis |
FC Utrecht | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
1-0 @ 7.19% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 5.95% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 3.64% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 2.01% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 1.64% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 1.23% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.84% Total : 23.5% | 1-1 @ 11.73% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.09% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 4.86% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.99% Total : 24.67% | 0-1 @ 11.57% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 9.58% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 9.45% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 5.22% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 5.15% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 2.64% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 2.13% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 2.1% ( -0.02) 2-4 @ 1.08% ( 0) Other @ 2.91% Total : 51.83% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 40 | 9 | 31 | 33 |
2 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 28 |
3 | Ajax | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 26 |
4 | Feyenoord | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 28 | 13 | 15 | 25 |
5 | FC Twente | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 11 | 13 | 22 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 17 |
7 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 17 |
8 | NECNijmegen | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 16 |
9 | Willem II | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 15 |
10 | Go Ahead Eagles | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 15 |
11 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 15 |
12 | Heerenveen | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 14 |
13 | Groningen | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 12 |
14 | PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 12 |
15 | Heracles | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 12 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 11 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 27 | -21 | 6 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 31 | -21 | 4 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |