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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SBV Excelsior win with a probability of 47.23%. A win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 29.01% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a SBV Excelsior win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.54%) and 2-0 (7.28%). The likeliest Fortuna Sittard win was 1-2 (7.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that SBV Excelsior would win this match.
Result | ||
SBV Excelsior | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
47.23% ( 0.01) | 23.76% ( -0.01) | 29.01% ( -0.01) |
Both teams to score 59.29% ( 0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.56% ( 0.02) | 42.43% ( -0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.16% ( 0.02) | 64.84% ( -0.02) |
SBV Excelsior Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.84% ( 0.01) | 18.16% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
50.86% ( 0.02) | 49.14% ( -0.03) |
Fortuna Sittard Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.44% ( 0.01) | 27.56% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.92% ( 0.01) | 63.07% ( -0.01) |
Score Analysis |
SBV Excelsior | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
2-1 @ 9.39% ( 0) 1-0 @ 8.54% ( -0) 2-0 @ 7.28% ( -0) 3-1 @ 5.34% ( 0) 3-0 @ 4.14% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.44% ( 0) 4-1 @ 2.28% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.77% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.47% ( 0) Other @ 3.6% Total : 47.23% | 1-1 @ 11% 2-2 @ 6.05% ( 0) 0-0 @ 5% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.48% ( 0) Other @ 0.22% Total : 23.75% | 1-2 @ 7.09% ( -0) 0-1 @ 6.45% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 4.16% ( -0) 1-3 @ 3.05% 2-3 @ 2.6% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.79% ( -0) 1-4 @ 0.98% Other @ 2.89% Total : 29.01% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 37 | 9 | 28 | 30 |
2 | Ajax | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 9 | 14 | 25 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 25 |
4 | Feyenoord | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 22 |
5 | FC Twente | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 13 | 21 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 17 |
7 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 17 |
8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 15 |
9 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 15 |
10 | NECNijmegen | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 13 |
11 | Willem II | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 12 |
12 | Heracles | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 12 |
13 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 11 |
14 | Heerenveen | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 11 |
15 | Groningen | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 9 |
16 | PEC Zwolle | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 9 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 23 | -18 | 6 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 10 | 28 | -18 | 4 |
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