With both managers likely to make widespread changes, this is a difficult contest to call. Nevertheless, Monaco will want to go through the group unbeaten, potentially leading to an extra edge in the final third. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monaco win with a probability of 48.15%. A win for Sturm Graz had a probability of 29.71% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Monaco win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.48%) and 0-2 (6.21%). The likeliest Sturm Graz win was 2-1 (7.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.53%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood.

Result
Sturm Graz	Draw	Monaco
29.71%	22.14%	48.15%

Both teams to score 65.69%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

65.78%

34.22%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

43.88%

56.12%

Sturm Graz Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.02%

22.98%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.23%

56.78%

Monaco Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.29%

14.71%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

57.09%

42.91%

Score Analysis

Sturm Graz 29.71%

Monaco 48.15%

Draw 22.14%

Sturm Graz	Draw	Monaco
2-1 @ 7.01% 1-0 @ 4.97% 2-0 @ 3.66% 3-1 @ 3.43% 3-2 @ 3.29% 3-0 @ 1.79% 4-1 @ 1.26% 4-2 @ 1.21% Other @ 3.09% Total : 29.71%	1-1 @ 9.53% 2-2 @ 6.71% 0-0 @ 3.38% 3-3 @ 2.1% Other @ 0.42% Total : 22.14%	1-2 @ 9.13% 0-1 @ 6.48% 0-2 @ 6.21% 1-3 @ 5.83% 2-3 @ 4.29% 0-3 @ 3.97% 1-4 @ 2.8% 2-4 @ 2.06% 0-4 @ 1.9% 1-5 @ 1.07% 3-4 @ 1.01% Other @ 3.41% Total : 48.15%