Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Nov 17, 2023 at 5pm UK

Helsingin olympiastadion

Finland
4 - 0
N. Ireland

Pohjanpalo (42' pen.), Hakans (48'), Pukki (73'), Lod (88')

FT(HT: 1-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Finland and Northern Ireland, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Finland

All competitions

Last Game: Finland 1-2 Kazakhstan
Tuesday, October 17 at 5pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group H Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Slovenia	8	11	19
2	Denmark	8	10	19
3	Kazakhstan	8	3	15
4	Finland	8	3	12
5	Northern Ireland	8	-2	6
6	San Marino	8	-25	0

Northern Ireland

All competitions

Last Game: N. Ireland 0-1 Slovenia
Tuesday, October 17 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group H Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Slovenia	8	11	19
2	Denmark	8	10	19
3	Kazakhstan	8	3	15
4	Finland	8	3	12
5	Northern Ireland	8	-2	6
6	San Marino	8	-25	0

We said: Finland 3-1 Northern Ireland

O'Neil will be demanding that his players finally get over the line against opposition who they will not consider to be of any added quality to themselves. Nevertheless, we cannot back against Finland on home territory, leading us to predict a fairly comfortable win courtesy of goals during the final quarter. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Finland win with a probability of 41.67%. A win for Northern Ireland had a probability of 31.46% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Finland win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.62%) and 2-0 (7.58%). The likeliest Northern Ireland win was 0-1 (9.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.75%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Finland would win this match.

Result
Finland	Draw	Northern Ireland
41.67% ( -1.51)	26.88% ( -0.15)	31.46% ( 1.67)

Both teams to score 50.38% (

1.18)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.37% (

1.17)

54.63% (

-1.16)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.03% (

0.96)

75.97% (

-0.96)

Finland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.13% (

-0.25)

25.87% (

0.26)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.16% (

-0.34)

60.84% (

0.35)

Northern Ireland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.95% (

1.82)

32.05% (

-1.81)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.49% (

2.02)

68.51% (

-2.01)

Score Analysis

Finland 41.66%

Northern Ireland 31.46%

Draw 26.87%

Finland	Draw	Northern Ireland
1-0 @ 11.2% ( -0.61) 2-1 @ 8.62% ( -0.09) 2-0 @ 7.58% ( -0.47) 3-1 @ 3.89% ( -0.07) 3-0 @ 3.42% ( -0.24) 3-2 @ 2.21% ( 0.07) 4-1 @ 1.31% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 1.16% ( -0.09) Other @ 2.27% Total : 41.66%	1-1 @ 12.75% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 8.29% ( -0.38) 2-2 @ 4.91% ( 0.19) Other @ 0.93% Total : 26.87%	0-1 @ 9.43% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 7.26% ( 0.33) 0-2 @ 5.37% ( 0.28) 1-3 @ 2.75% ( 0.25) 0-3 @ 2.04% ( 0.2) 2-3 @ 1.86% ( 0.16) Other @ 2.75% Total : 31.46%