Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Sep 10, 2023 at 5pm UK

Helsingin olympiastadion

Finland
0 - 1
Denmark

Ivanov (18'), Uronen (53'), Pohjanpalo (79')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Hojbjerg (86')
Kristensen (13'), Norgaard (62'), Poulsen (73'), Andersen (90+4')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Finland and Denmark, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Finland

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Kazakhstan 0-1 Finland
Thursday, September 7 at 3pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group H Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Finland	5	8	12
2	Denmark	5	6	10
3	Slovenia	5	3	10
4	Kazakhstan	5	3	9
5	Northern Ireland	5	-3	3
6	San Marino	5	-17	0

Denmark

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Denmark 4-0 San Marino
Thursday, September 7 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group H Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Finland	5	8	12
2	Denmark	5	6	10
3	Slovenia	5	3	10
4	Kazakhstan	5	3	9
5	Northern Ireland	5	-3	3
6	San Marino	5	-17	0

There is no hiding the fact that Denmark claimed a dominant 3-1 victory in the reverse fixture, but Finland have registered four consecutive clean-sheet wins since then. For that reason, we expect the Eagle-Owls to frustrate the Reds and Whites this time around, with the Nordic neighbours likely to share the spoils in Helsinki. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Finland win with a probability of 38.35%. A win for Denmark had a probability of 34.03% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Finland win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.12%) and 2-0 (7.02%). The likeliest Denmark win was 0-1 (10.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.04%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood.

Result
Finland	Draw	Denmark
38.35% ( 0.07)	27.62% ( -0.07)	34.03% ( -0)

Both teams to score 48.8% (

0.22)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.06% (

0.27)

56.93% (

-0.27)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.16% (

0.22)

77.84% (

-0.22)

Finland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.21% (

0.17)

28.79% (

-0.17)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.36% (

0.21)

64.63% (

-0.22)

Denmark Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.53% (

0.14)

31.47% (

-0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.15% (

0.16)

67.85% (

-0.16)

Score Analysis

Finland 38.35%

Denmark 34.03%

Draw 27.62%

Finland	Draw	Denmark
1-0 @ 11.28% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 8.12% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 7.02% ( -0) 3-1 @ 3.37% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 2.92% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.95% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.05% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 0.91% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.73% Total : 38.35%	1-1 @ 13.04% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 9.06% ( -0.1) 2-2 @ 4.69% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.82% Total : 27.62%	0-1 @ 10.47% ( -0.07) 1-2 @ 7.54% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 6.06% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 2.91% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 2.33% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.81% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.92% Total : 34.03%