Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Oct 17, 2023 at 5pm UK

Helsingin olympiastadion

Finland
1 - 2
Kazakhstan

Taylor (28')
Ivanov (72')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Zainutdinov (77' pen., 89')
Marochkin (27'), Samorodov (79'), Kuat (81'), Skvortsov (90+3'), Orazov (90+5'), Beysebekov (90+5')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Finland and Kazakhstan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Finland

All competitions

Last Game: Slovenia 3-0 Finland
Saturday, October 14 at 5pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group H Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Slovenia	7	10	16
2	Denmark	7	9	16
3	Finland	7	4	12
4	Kazakhstan	7	2	12
5	Northern Ireland	7	-1	6
6	San Marino	7	-24	0

Kazakhstan

All competitions

Last Game: Denmark 3-1 Kazakhstan
Saturday, October 14 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group H Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Slovenia	7	10	16
2	Denmark	7	9	16
3	Finland	7	4	12
4	Kazakhstan	7	2	12
5	Northern Ireland	7	-1	6
6	San Marino	7	-24	0

We said: Finland 1-0 Kazakhstan

Locked together on points in the Group H table, there has been little to choose between these two nations this year, but home advantage should help Finland sneak victory by one goal; Kazakhstan could be bound for the playoffs. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Finland win with a probability of 56.38%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Kazakhstan had a probability of 19.86%.

The most likely scoreline for a Finland win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.61%) and 2-1 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.28%), while for a Kazakhstan win it was 0-1 (6.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood.

Result
Finland	Draw	Kazakhstan
56.38% ( -2.19)	23.76% ( 0.93)	19.86% ( 1.25)

Both teams to score 49.18% (

-0.76)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49% (

-2.08)

51% (

2.08)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.14% (

-1.86)

72.86% (

1.86)

Finland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.09% (

-1.52)

17.91% (

1.53)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.29% (

-2.69)

48.71% (

2.69)

Kazakhstan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.91% (

0.19)

40.09% (

-0.18)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.27% (

0.17)

76.73% (

-0.17)

Score Analysis

Finland 56.37%

Kazakhstan 19.86%

Draw 23.75%

Finland	Draw	Kazakhstan
1-0 @ 12.34% ( 0.41) 2-0 @ 10.61% ( -0.18) 2-1 @ 9.71% ( -0.11) 3-0 @ 6.09% ( -0.42) 3-1 @ 5.56% ( -0.36) 4-0 @ 2.62% ( -0.33) 3-2 @ 2.54% ( -0.15) 4-1 @ 2.39% ( -0.29) 4-2 @ 1.09% ( -0.12) Other @ 3.41% Total : 56.37%	1-1 @ 11.28% ( 0.43) 0-0 @ 7.18% ( 0.58) 2-2 @ 4.44% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.86% Total : 23.75%	0-1 @ 6.56% ( 0.56) 1-2 @ 5.16% ( 0.22) 0-2 @ 3% ( 0.27) 1-3 @ 1.57% ( 0.08) 2-3 @ 1.35% ( -0) 0-3 @ 0.91% ( 0.09) Other @ 1.3% Total : 19.86%