FA Cup | Fourth Round
Jan 29, 2023 at 2pm UK
Bet365 Stadium
Stoke3 - 1Stevenage
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Stoke 4-0 Reading
Saturday, January 21 at 3pm in Championship
Saturday, January 21 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Stevenage 3-0 Leyton Orient
Saturday, January 21 at 3pm in League Two
Saturday, January 21 at 3pm in League Two
We said: Stoke City 2-1 Stevenage
Stevenage do come into the contest with momentum and have already caused an upset in this year's competition, but, on the back of a 4-0 victory of their own last time out, we back Neil's men to come through a tough test and advance to the next round. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 37.8%. A win for Stevenage had a probability of 35.16% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.18%) and 2-0 (6.71%). The likeliest Stevenage win was 0-1 (10.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.84%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Stoke City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Stoke City | Draw | Stevenage |
37.8% ( -0.25) | 27.05% ( 0.24) | 35.16% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 50.71% ( -0.76) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
