FA Cup

FA Cup | Third Round

Jan 8, 2023 at 4.30pm UK

Villa Park

Aston Villa
1 - 2
Stevenage

Sanson (33')
Dendoncker (85')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Reid (88' pen.), Campbell (90')

The Match

Match Report

Stevenage launch a stunning late fightback to defeat Premier League side Aston Villa by a 2-1 scoreline in the FA Cup third round.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's FA Cup clash between Aston Villa and Stevenage, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Aston Villa

All competitions

Last Game: Aston Villa 1-1 Wolves
Wednesday, January 4 at 8pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Stevenage

All competitions

FA Cup

Last Game: Stevenage 1-0 Gillingham
Monday, January 2 at 3pm in League Two

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 47.93%. A win for Stevenage had a probability of 27.83% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.44%) and 2-0 (7.83%). The likeliest Stevenage win was 1-2 (6.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood.

Result
Aston Villa	Draw	Stevenage
47.93% ( 0.01)	24.24% ( 0.14)	27.83% ( -0.15)

Both teams to score 56.75% (

-0.6)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.61% (

-0.73)

45.39% (

0.74)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.28% (

-0.7)

67.72% (

0.71)

Aston Villa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.96% (

-0.28)

19.04% (

0.29)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.39% (

-0.48)

50.62% (

0.48)

Stevenage Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.1% (

-0.48)

29.9% (

0.49)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34% (

-0.59)

66% (

0.59)

Score Analysis

Aston Villa 47.93%

Stevenage 27.83%

Draw 24.23%

Aston Villa	Draw	Stevenage
2-1 @ 9.46% ( -0) 1-0 @ 9.44% ( 0.21) 2-0 @ 7.83% ( 0.1) 3-1 @ 5.23% ( -0.05) 3-0 @ 4.33% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 3.16% ( -0.07) 4-1 @ 2.17% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 1.8% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.31% ( -0.04) Other @ 3.22% Total : 47.93%	1-1 @ 11.39% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 5.71% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 5.69% ( 0.18) 3-3 @ 1.27% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.17% Total : 24.23%	1-2 @ 6.88% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 6.87% ( 0.12) 0-2 @ 4.15% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 2.77% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 2.3% ( -0.06) 0-3 @ 1.67% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.19% Total : 27.83%