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Mainz logo
Bundesliga | Gameweek 29
May 30, 2020 at 2.30pm UK
Opel Arena
Hoffenheim logo

Mainz 05
0 - 1
Hoffenheim


Baku (14'), Bruma (19'), Boetius (43'), Barreiro (44')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Bebou (43')
Bogarde (12'), Samassekou (18'), Rudy (31')

Preview: Mainz 05 vs. Hoffenheim - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and Hoffenheim, including team news and predicted lineups.

Mainz 05 head into Saturday's Bundesliga encounter with Hoffenheim sitting just one point above the relegation zone.

Meanwhile, the visitors travel to the Opel Arena sitting in seventh position in the standings after their 3-1 victory over FC Koln in midweek.


Match preview

Mainz 05 coach Achim Beierlorzer pictured in December 2019© Reuters

After a four-match winless streak, Mainz find themselves under pressure to extend the gap from the relegation zone to more than just the solitary point.

Although they managed to avoid defeat at Union Berlin in midweek, Achim Beierlorzer will admit that it was a missed opportunity to move level on points with the 13th-placed side after they possessed a man advantage for over half of the contest.

Nevertheless, gaining a point so soon after being thrashed 5-0 at home to RB Leipzig will fill Beierlorzer will a certain degree of confidence about the character of his squad.

With three of their closing half a dozen games coming against teams in the top seven, he will hope that his belief is shared with his squad, whose only win in seven matches was at home to bottom-of-the-table outfit Paderborn.

That run has coincided with top goalscorer Robin Quaison only netting once during that period, and Beierlorzer will be desperate for the Swede to regain his form in the final third.

Up until Wednesday, Hoffenheim has been on a worse run than their hosts, failing to win any of their most recent seven matches in the Bundesliga.

However, recording a relatively dominant success over Koln has moved the club back into seventh position in the standings, keeping them in the hunt for the Europa League.

Alfred Schreuder will certainly not be getting carried away, especially given that Hoffenheim played with a man advantage for 64 minutes of the clash in midweek.

That said, the double for Christoph Baumgartner took the 20-year-old's tally to six for the campaign, and the 20-year-old could prove to be a key man over the closing weeks.

At the other end, though, Schreuder will be concerned that Hoffenheim have now kept just one clean sheet in their last 13 contests in all competitions.

Mainz 05 Bundesliga form: LWDDLD

Hoffenheim Bundesliga form: DLDLDW


Team News

Hoffenheim head coach Alfred Schreuder pictured on May 27, 2020© Reuters

Hoffenheim boss Schreuder is still likely to be without Andrej Kramaric, who is struggling with an ongoing ankle issue.

With Benjamin Hubner out through suspension, Ermin Bicakcic could be brought back into the centre of defence.

Having shaken off thigh and knee injuries respectively, Dennis Geiger and Munas Dabbur are in contention for a starting spot.

Meanwhile, Beierlorzer will be open to making alterations to his side after their poor run of form.

Few players are safe from being dropped, and it could lead to Adam Szalai seeing his place in attack taken by Jean-Philippe Mateta.

Stefan Bell is available for selection after a seven-month absence, but it would come as a surprise if the centre-back is introduced into the starting lineup at this stage of his comeback.

Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Muller; Niakhate, Hack, Bruma; Baku, Kunde, Martins, Brosinski; Onisiwo, Quaison; Mateta

Hoffenheim possible starting lineup:
Baumann; Zuber, Bicakcic, Posch, Kaderabrek; Grillitsch, Geiger, Rudy; Baumgartner, Bebou, Skov


Sports Mole Logo

We say: Mainz 05 1-1 Hoffenheim

Neither side have kept a clean sheet since the resumption and we feel that will continue on Saturday. However, with much to play for, expect a fierce battle to end with the teams being relatively content with a share of the spoils.



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Written by
Darren Plant

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hoffenheim win with a probability of 38.03%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 37.94% and a draw had a probability of 24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Hoffenheim win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.18%) and 0-2 (5.5%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 2-1 (8.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.97%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hoffenheim would win this match.


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