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La Liga | Gameweek 12
Nov 5, 2023 at 5.30pm UK
Estadio de la Ceramica
Athletic Bilbao logo

Villarreal
2 - 3
Athletic Bilbao

Moreno (86'), Sorloth (87')
Gabbia (19'), Albiol (72'), Mandi (74'), Femenia (76')
FT(HT: 0-3)
Ruiz de Galarreta (2'), Williams (22'), Williams (30')
Williams (41'), de Marcos (44'), Garcia (89'), Ruiz de Galarreta (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's La Liga clash between Villarreal and Athletic Bilbao, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Chiclana 0-5 Villarreal
Thursday, November 2 at 6pm in Copa del Rey
Last Game: Rubi 1-2 Athletic Bilbao
Wednesday, November 1 at 8.30pm in Copa del Rey

We said: Villarreal 1-1 Athletic Bilbao

Five of the last nine La Liga meetings between these two teams have finished level, and we are expecting the points to be shared once again this weekend. Villarreal have shown improvement in recent weeks, but Athletic are a strong side, and the two teams could play out a low-scoring draw here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 37.5%. A win for Villarreal had a probability of 37.44% and a draw had a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.27%) and 0-2 (5.89%). The likeliest Villarreal win was 2-1 (8.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.76%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.

Result
VillarrealDrawAthletic Bilbao
37.44% (0.076000000000001 0.08) 25.05% (-0.0079999999999991 -0.01) 37.5% (-0.067 -0.07)
Both teams to score 57.59% (0.027999999999999 0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.12% (0.039000000000001 0.04)45.86% (-0.039000000000001 -0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.81% (0.036999999999999 0.04)68.18% (-0.036999999999992 -0.04)
Villarreal Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.87% (0.057999999999993 0.06)24.12% (-0.056999999999999 -0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.57% (0.082000000000001 0.08)58.42% (-0.081000000000003 -0.08)
Athletic Bilbao Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.9% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)24.09% (0.02 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.62% (-0.024999999999999 -0.02)58.37% (0.028000000000006 0.03)
Score Analysis
    Villarreal 37.44%
    Athletic Bilbao 37.5%
    Draw 25.05%
VillarrealDrawAthletic Bilbao
2-1 @ 8.36% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-0 @ 8.26% (0.00099999999999945 0)
2-0 @ 5.88% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
3-1 @ 3.96% (0.011 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.82% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
3-0 @ 2.79% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
4-1 @ 1.41% (0.006 0.01)
4-2 @ 1% (0.0039999999999999 0)
4-0 @ 0.99% (0.005 0.01)
Other @ 1.97%
Total : 37.44%
1-1 @ 11.76%
2-2 @ 5.95% (0.0039999999999996 0)
0-0 @ 5.81% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
3-3 @ 1.34% (0.0029999999999999 0)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 25.05%
1-2 @ 8.37% (-0.0079999999999991 -0.01)
0-1 @ 8.27% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
0-2 @ 5.89% (-0.016 -0.02)
1-3 @ 3.97% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
2-3 @ 2.82%
0-3 @ 2.79% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
1-4 @ 1.41% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
2-4 @ 1.01%
0-4 @ 0.99% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 1.97%
Total : 37.5%

How you voted: Villarreal vs Athletic Bilbao

Villarreal
Draw
Athletic Bilbao
Villarreal
31.0%
Draw
41.4%
Athletic Bilbao
27.6%
58
Head to Head
May 13, 2023 5.30pm
Gameweek 34
Villarreal
5-1
Athletic Bilbao
Baena (24', 90'), Jackson (37', 50'), Paredes (61' og.)
Capoue (1'), Parejo (45'), Torres (45+3'), Pedraza (58')
Sancet (45+3' pen.)
Paredes (54'), Herrera (54'), Williams (68')
Oct 30, 2022 5.30pm
Apr 9, 2022 5.30pm
Gameweek 31
Villarreal
1-1
Athletic Bilbao
Pedraza (60')
Pedraza (50'), Mandi (81')
Garcia (43')
Petxarroman (85'), Garcia (90'), Sancet (90+1')
Oct 23, 2021 8pm
Gameweek 10
Athletic Bilbao
2-1
Villarreal
Garcia (14'), Muniain (77' pen.)
Coquelin (32')
Foyth (55'), Moreno (76'), Estupinan (80')
Feb 21, 2021 8pm
Gameweek 24
Athletic Bilbao
1-1
Villarreal
Berenguer (44')
Garcia (53'), Lopez (86')
Moreno (16')
Capoue (40'), Foyth (55')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Real Madrid19134243192443
2Atletico MadridAtletico18125133122141
3Barcelona19122551222938
4Athletic Bilbao19106329171236
5Villarreal188643430430
6Mallorca199371921-230
7Real Sociedad187471613325
8GironaGirona187472625125
9Real BetisBetis186752122-125
10Osasuna186752327-425
11Celta Vigo187382728-124
12Rayo Vallecano185762021-122
13Las PalmasLas Palmas186482327-422
14Sevilla186482027-722
15Leganes184681728-1118
16AlavesAlaves184592130-917
17Getafe183781115-416
18Espanyol1843111630-1415
19Valencia1826101728-1112
20Real ValladolidValladolid1833121237-2512


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