La Liga

La Liga | Gameweek 12

Nov 5, 2023 at 5.30pm UK

Estadio de la Ceramica

Villarreal
2 - 3
Athletic Bilbao

Moreno (86'), Sorloth (87')
Gabbia (19'), Albiol (72'), Mandi (74'), Femenia (76')

FT(HT: 0-3)

Ruiz de Galarreta (2'), Williams (22'), Williams (30')
Williams (41'), de Marcos (44'), Garcia (89'), Ruiz de Galarreta (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's La Liga clash between Villarreal and Athletic Bilbao, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Villarreal

All competitions

La Liga

Last Game: Chiclana 0-5 Villarreal
Thursday, November 2 at 6pm in Copa del Rey

Goals
for

Top scorers

Athletic Bilbao

All competitions

La Liga

Last Game: Rubi 1-2 Athletic Bilbao
Wednesday, November 1 at 8.30pm in Copa del Rey

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Villarreal 1-1 Athletic Bilbao

Five of the last nine La Liga meetings between these two teams have finished level, and we are expecting the points to be shared once again this weekend. Villarreal have shown improvement in recent weeks, but Athletic are a strong side, and the two teams could play out a low-scoring draw here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 37.5%. A win for Villarreal had a probability of 37.44% and a draw had a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.27%) and 0-2 (5.89%). The likeliest Villarreal win was 2-1 (8.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.76%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.

Result
Villarreal	Draw	Athletic Bilbao
37.44% ( 0.08)	25.05% ( -0.01)	37.5% ( -0.07)

Both teams to score 57.59% (

0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.12% (

0.04)

45.86% (

-0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.81% (

0.04)

68.18% (

-0.04)

Villarreal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.87% (

0.06)

24.12% (

-0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.57% (

0.08)

58.42% (

-0.08)

Athletic Bilbao Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.9% (

-0.02)

24.09% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.62% (

-0.02)

58.37% (

0.03)

Score Analysis

Villarreal 37.44%

Athletic Bilbao 37.5%

Draw 25.05%

Villarreal	Draw	Athletic Bilbao
2-1 @ 8.36% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.26% ( 0) 2-0 @ 5.88% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 3.96% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.82% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 2.79% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.41% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1% ( 0) 4-0 @ 0.99% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.97% Total : 37.44%	1-1 @ 11.76% 2-2 @ 5.95% ( 0) 0-0 @ 5.81% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.34% ( 0) Other @ 0.18% Total : 25.05%	1-2 @ 8.37% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 8.27% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 5.89% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 3.97% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.82% 0-3 @ 2.79% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.41% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.01% 0-4 @ 0.99% ( -0) Other @ 1.97% Total : 37.5%