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La Liga | Gameweek 30
Apr 1, 2024 at 8pm UK
Estadio de la Ceramica
Atletico Madrid logo

Villarreal
1 - 2
Atletico

Sorloth (50')
Capoue (27'), Parejo (58'), Mosquera (90+3')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Witsel (9'), Niguez (87')
Griezmann (26'), Barrios (62'), Niguez (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's La Liga clash between Villarreal and Atletico Madrid, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

We said: Villarreal 1-1 Atletico Madrid

Villarreal are flying at the moment, and we are finding it difficult to predict the hosts to lose here, especially considering Atletico's away struggles. The Red and Whites will be determined to avoid a third straight league defeat, meanwhile, and we can see the points being shared in a low-scoring draw. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 44.82%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 30.46% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.19%) and 2-0 (7.29%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 (7.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.

Result
VillarrealDrawAtletico Madrid
44.82% (0.288 0.29) 24.71% (0.206 0.21) 30.46% (-0.488 -0.49)
Both teams to score 56.9% (-0.948 -0.95)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.03% (-1.13 -1.13)45.97% (1.135 1.14)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.72% (-1.079 -1.08)68.28% (1.084 1.08)
Villarreal Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.41% (-0.337 -0.34)20.59% (0.341 0.34)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.87% (-0.53599999999999 -0.54)53.13% (0.541 0.54)
Atletico Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.65% (-0.88300000000001 -0.88)28.35% (0.889 0.89)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.91% (-1.129 -1.13)64.09% (1.135 1.14)
Score Analysis
    Villarreal 44.82%
    Atletico Madrid 30.46%
    Draw 24.71%
VillarrealDrawAtletico Madrid
1-0 @ 9.23% (0.344 0.34)
2-1 @ 9.19% (0.024000000000001 0.02)
2-0 @ 7.29% (0.198 0.2)
3-1 @ 4.84% (-0.037999999999999 -0.04)
3-0 @ 3.84% (0.064 0.06)
3-2 @ 3.05% (-0.102 -0.1)
4-1 @ 1.91% (-0.035 -0.03)
4-0 @ 1.52% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.21% (-0.053 -0.05)
Other @ 2.75%
Total : 44.82%
1-1 @ 11.62% (0.15 0.15)
0-0 @ 5.84% (0.277 0.28)
2-2 @ 5.79% (-0.13 -0.13)
3-3 @ 1.28% (-0.076 -0.08)
Other @ 0.17%
Total : 24.71%
0-1 @ 7.36% (0.171 0.17)
1-2 @ 7.33% (-0.087000000000001 -0.09)
0-2 @ 4.64% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
1-3 @ 3.08% (-0.116 -0.12)
2-3 @ 2.43% (-0.117 -0.12)
0-3 @ 1.95% (-0.052 -0.05)
1-4 @ 0.97% (-0.062 -0.06)
Other @ 2.71%
Total : 30.46%

How you voted: Villarreal vs Atletico

Villarreal
29.9%
Draw
27.8%
Atletico Madrid
42.4%
144
Head to Head
Nov 12, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 13
Atletico
3-1
Villarreal
Witsel (45+1'), Griezmann (80'), Lino (85')
Moreno (20')
Capoue (45+2'), Akhomach (77')
Jun 4, 2023 5.30pm
Gameweek 38
Villarreal
2-2
Atletico
Jackson (9'), Pascual (90+2')
Moreno (36'), Capoue (39'), Baena (75')
Correa (18', 56')
Barrios (68'), Correa (76')
Witsel (70')
Aug 21, 2022 6.30pm
Gameweek 2
Atletico
0-2
Villarreal

Felix (48'), Gimenez (90+1')
Molina (90+4')
Pino (73'), Moreno (90+7')
Parejo (90+3'), Baena (90+4'), Moreno (90+9')
Jan 9, 2022 8pm
Gameweek 20
Villarreal
2-2
Atletico
Torres (29'), Moreno (58')
Correa (10'), Kondogbia (67')
Kondogbia (71')
Kondogbia (90+2')
Aug 29, 2021 9pm
Gameweek 3
Atletico
2-2
Villarreal
Suarez (56'), Mandi (90+4' og.)
Simeone (16'), Correa (28'), Lemar (45'), Suarez (59'), De Paul (85')
Trigueros (52'), Danjuma (74')
Moreno (61'), Rulli (85')
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Barcelona14111242142834
2Atletico MadridAtletico148512181329
3Real Madrid1283125111427
4Villarreal137422521425
5Osasuna146441922-322
6GironaGirona146352018221
7Mallorca146351312121
8Athletic Bilbao135531913620
9Real BetisBetis145541616020
10Real Sociedad135351110118
11Celta Vigo145362224-218
12Rayo Vallecano124441313016
13Sevilla134361218-615
14Leganes133551316-314
15Getafe142751011-113
16AlavesAlaves144191524-913
17Las PalmasLas Palmas143381825-712
18Valencia122461219-710
19Espanyol133191226-1410
20Real ValladolidValladolid142391027-179


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