League One | Gameweek 23
Dec 21, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
We said: Derby County 2-1 Lincoln City
With both teams having put together lengthy unbeaten streaks, this should be a competitive fixture. Lincoln will fancy their chances of collecting at least a point, but we feel that the Rams are playing with enough confidence to edge this contest by the odd goal in three.
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Data Analysis Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 66.02% . A draw had a probability of 20.8% and a win for Lincoln City had a probability of 13.14% .
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.57% . The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.12%) and 2-1 (9.49%) . The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.81%) , while for a Lincoln City win it was 0-1 (5.07%) . The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood . Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
Result Derby County Draw Lincoln City 66.02% ( 0.01) 20.84% ( -0) 13.14% ( -0.01)
Both teams to score 44.02% ( -0.02)
49.57% ( -0.01) 50.43% ( 0.01)
27.64% ( -0.01) 72.36% ( 0.01)
85.54% ( -0) 14.46%
Over 1.5 Under 1.5 57.58% ( -0) 42.42% ( -0)
51.46% ( -0.02) 48.53% ( 0.02)
Over 1.5 Under 1.5 16.38% ( -0.01) 83.62% ( 0.01)
Derby County 66.02%
Lincoln City 13.14%
Draw 20.84%
Derby County Draw Lincoln City 1-0 @ 13.57% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 13.12% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.49% ( -0) 3-0 @ 8.46% ( 0) 3-1 @ 6.12% ( -0) 4-0 @ 4.09% ( 0) 4-1 @ 2.96% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.21% ( -0) 5-0 @ 1.58% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1.14% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.07% Other @ 2.22% Total : 66.02% 1-1 @ 9.81% ( -0) 0-0 @ 7.02% ( 0) 2-2 @ 3.43% ( -0) Other @ 0.58% Total : 20.84% 0-1 @ 5.07% ( -0) 1-2 @ 3.55% ( -0) 0-2 @ 1.83% ( -0) Other @ 2.69% Total : 13.14%
How you voted: Derby vs Lincoln
Derby County
Draw
Lincoln City
40
rhs 2.0
LT: 2024-07-04 05:09:57
Friday, July 5
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