League One

League One | Gameweek 36

Mar 11, 2023 at 3pm UK

The Kassam Stadium

Oxford Utd
2 - 3
Derby

Long (14'), Joseph (90')
Brown (39')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Sibley (23', 40'), Long (61' og.)
Smith (59')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Oxford United and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Oxford United

All competitions

Last Game: Lincoln 1-0 Oxford Utd
Saturday, March 4 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Derby County

All competitions

Last Game: Plymouth 2-1 Derby
Tuesday, March 7 at 8pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Oxford United 0-2 Derby County

Although Derby's form has tailed off in recent weeks, we think that they will prove to be too strong for an Oxford side who have lost eight of their last nine matches. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 48.39%. A win for Oxford United had a probability of 26.25% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.36%) and 0-2 (8.72%). The likeliest Oxford United win was 1-0 (7.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Oxford United	Draw	Derby County
26.25% ( -0.01)	25.36% ( -0)	48.39% ( 0)

Both teams to score 51.87% (

-0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.79% (

-0)

51.21% (

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.95% (

-0)

73.04% (

Oxford United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.8% (

-0.01)

34.19% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.11% (

-0.01)

70.89% (

0.01)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.82% (

21.17% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.95%

54.05% (

-0)

Score Analysis

Oxford United 26.25%

Derby County 48.39%

Draw 25.36%

Oxford United	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 7.77% 2-1 @ 6.47% ( -0) 2-0 @ 4.17% ( -0) 3-1 @ 2.32% ( -0) 3-2 @ 1.8% 3-0 @ 1.49% ( -0) Other @ 2.23% Total : 26.25%	1-1 @ 12.06% 0-0 @ 7.24% ( 0) 2-2 @ 5.02% ( -0) 3-3 @ 0.93% Other @ 0.1% Total : 25.36%	0-1 @ 11.24% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 9.36% 0-2 @ 8.72% ( 0) 1-3 @ 4.84% 0-3 @ 4.51% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.6% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.88% 0-4 @ 1.75% ( 0) 2-4 @ 1.01% Other @ 2.47% Total : 48.39%