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Championship header 2

League One
Plymouth Argyle
League One | Gameweek 29
Mar 7, 2023 at 8pm UK
Home Park
Derby logo

Plymouth
2 - 1
Derby

Wright (59'), Hardie (70' pen.)
Wilson (19'), Matete (89')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Mendez-Laing (17')
Knight (90+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's League One clash between Plymouth Argyle and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Plymouth Argyle

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Plymouth 2-0 Charlton
Saturday, March 4 at 3pm in League One

Derby County

All competitions
Last Game: Derby 2-2 Shrewsbury
Saturday, March 4 at 3pm in League One

We said: Plymouth Argyle 2-1 Derby County

 Plymouth bounced back from a humiliating defeat at Peterborough by beating Charlton on Saturday, and they will realise three points against Derby in this one would go in a long way in securing their position in the top two. The Rams need to find some consistency if they are to challenge the likes of the Pilgrims and Ipswich for a top-two berth, but we see Warne's men narrowly losing out on Tuesday night. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Plymouth Argyle win with a probability of 44.94%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 29.6% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Plymouth Argyle win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.14%) and 2-0 (7.76%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.09%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Plymouth Argyle in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Plymouth Argyle.

Result
Plymouth ArgyleDrawDerby County
44.94% (-0.020000000000003 -0.02) 25.46% (0.0060000000000002 0.01) 29.6% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Both teams to score 53.93% (-0.009999999999998 -0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.36% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)49.64% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.34% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)71.66% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Plymouth Argyle Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.94% (-0.015999999999991 -0.02)22.06% (0.015999999999998 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.59% (-0.024999999999999 -0.02)55.4% (0.024000000000001 0.02)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.19% (0.00099999999999056 0)30.81% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.92% (0.0019999999999953 0)67.08% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)
Score Analysis
    Plymouth Argyle 44.94%
    Derby County 29.6%
    Draw 25.46%
Plymouth ArgyleDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 10.27% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-1 @ 9.14% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-0 @ 7.76% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
3-1 @ 4.6% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
3-0 @ 3.91% (-0.0029999999999997 -0)
3-2 @ 2.71% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
4-1 @ 1.74% (-0.002 -0)
4-0 @ 1.48% (-0.002 -0)
4-2 @ 1.02% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 2.3%
Total : 44.94%
1-1 @ 12.09%
0-0 @ 6.8% (0.0049999999999999 0)
2-2 @ 5.38% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
3-3 @ 1.06% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 25.46%
0-1 @ 8% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
1-2 @ 7.12% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-2 @ 4.71% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-3 @ 2.8% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-3 @ 2.11%
0-3 @ 1.85% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 3.01%
Total : 29.6%

How you voted: Plymouth vs Derby

Plymouth Argyle
76.2%
Draw
9.5%
Derby County
14.3%
63
Head to Head
Sep 3, 2022 3pm
Derby
2-3
Plymouth
Collins (26'), Mendez-Laing (38')
McGoldrick (57')
Whittaker (56'), Cosgrove (77', 90')
Mumba (34')
Jan 26, 2010 3pm
Plymouth
1-0
Derby
Mackie (82')
Fallon (29'), Sawyer (45')

McEveley (14'), Pearson (38'), Hunt (45'), Savage (78'), Buxton (81')
Aug 22, 2009 3pm
Derby
2-1
Plymouth
Buxton (40'), Addison (90')
Addison (76')
Judge (17' pen.)
Fletcher (90')
Feb 7, 2009 3pm
Plymouth
0-3
Derby
Hulse (46', 52'), Teale (43')
Oct 18, 2008 3pm
Derby
2-1
Plymouth
Green (52'), Hulse (45')
Gallagher (8')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Wycombe WanderersWycombe19134243222143
2Birmingham CityBirmingham18133234161842
3Wrexham20125330131741
4Huddersfield TownHuddersfield19113530181236
5Stockport CountyStockport2096532211133
6Reading199463028231
7Barnsley208662926330
8Bolton WanderersBolton189362829-130
9Lincoln CityLincoln207762625128
10Blackpool197572931-226
11Mansfield TownMansfield187472222025
12Stevenage187471517-225
13Peterborough UnitedPeterborough197393735224
14Charlton AthleticCharlton196671819-124
15Exeter CityExeter197391721-424
16Wigan AthleticWigan196581716123
17Rotherham UnitedRotherham186571920-123
18Leyton Orient196491920-122
19Northampton TownNorthampton205692129-821
20Bristol Rovers1963101728-1121
21Crawley TownCrawley1954102032-1219
22Cambridge UnitedCambridge1945102031-1117
23Burton Albion1926111630-1412
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury1932141939-2011
> League One Full Table


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