League One

League One | Gameweek 39

Mar 16, 2024 at 3pm UK

St James Park

Exeter
1 - 0
Burton Albion

Cole (41')
Sweeney (30'), Aitchison (43'), Carroll (65'), Cole (83')
Jules (45+6')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Caprice (2'), Harper (55'), Carayol (83')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Exeter City and Burton Albion, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Exeter City

All competitions

Last Game: Shrewsbury 0-3 Exeter
Tuesday, March 12 at 7.45pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Burton Albion

All competitions

Last Game: Portsmouth 2-1 Burton Albion
Tuesday, March 12 at 7.45pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Exeter City 2-1 Burton Albion

Boosted by their midweek win and meeting a Brewers side who are lacking any momentum, we back Exeter City to triumph on home turf on Saturday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Exeter City win with a probability of 44.29%. A win for Burton Albion had a probability of 29.19% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Exeter City win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.91%) and 2-0 (8.13%). The likeliest Burton Albion win was 0-1 (8.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Exeter City in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Exeter City.

Result
Exeter City	Draw	Burton Albion
44.29% ( 0.02)	26.53% ( 0)	29.19% ( -0.02)

Both teams to score 50.38% (

-0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.86% (

-0.01)

54.14% (

0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.45% (

-0.01)

75.55% (

0.01)

Exeter City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.69% (

24.31% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.3% (

0.01)

58.7% (

-0)

Burton Albion Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.56% (

-0.02)

33.44% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.93% (

-0.02)

70.07% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Exeter City 44.28%

Burton Albion 29.19%

Draw 26.52%

Exeter City	Draw	Burton Albion
1-0 @ 11.49% 2-1 @ 8.91% 2-0 @ 8.13% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 4.2% ( 0) 3-0 @ 3.83% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.3% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.48% 4-0 @ 1.36% ( 0) Other @ 2.59% Total : 44.28%	1-1 @ 12.59% 0-0 @ 8.13% ( 0) 2-2 @ 4.88% ( -0) Other @ 0.93% Total : 26.52%	0-1 @ 8.91% 1-2 @ 6.9% ( -0) 0-2 @ 4.88% ( -0) 1-3 @ 2.52% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.78% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.78% ( -0) Other @ 2.42% Total : 29.19%