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League One
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League One | Gameweek 16
Oct 21, 2022 at 8pm UK
Portman Road Stadium
Derby logo

Ipswich
1 - 0
Derby

Burns (67')
Morsy (10'), Woolfenden (90+7')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Chester (23'), Smith (51')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's League One clash between Ipswich Town and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ipswich Town

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Cambridge 1-0 Ipswich
Tuesday, October 18 at 7pm in EFL Trophy

Derby County

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Derby 1-3 Man City U21s
Tuesday, October 18 at 7pm in EFL Trophy

We said: Ipswich Town 1-1 Derby County

 There is not a huge difference in the quality of these two sides, and we are expecting a close match on Friday night. Ipswich will be determined to close the gap on leaders Plymouth, but Derby should be good enough to secure a share of the spoils in this game. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ipswich Town win with a probability of 54.07%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 20.88%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ipswich Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.63%) and 2-1 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.81%), while for a Derby County win it was 0-1 (7.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Ipswich Town in this match.

Result
Ipswich TownDrawDerby County
54.07% (-0.094000000000001 -0.09) 25.06% (0.032999999999998 0.03) 20.88% (0.061 0.06)
Both teams to score 46.91% (-0.009999999999998 -0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
45.22% (-0.058 -0.06)54.78% (0.056000000000004 0.06)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.91% (-0.047000000000001 -0.05)76.09% (0.046000000000006 0.05)
Ipswich Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.75% (-0.060999999999993 -0.06)20.25% (0.059999999999999 0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.41% (-0.097000000000001 -0.1)52.58% (0.095999999999997 0.1)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
58.82% (0.032000000000004 0.03)41.18% (-0.033000000000001 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
22.28% (0.026 0.03)77.71% (-0.027999999999992 -0.03)
Score Analysis
    Ipswich Town 54.06%
    Derby County 20.88%
    Draw 25.05%
Ipswich TownDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 13.31%
2-0 @ 10.63% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-1 @ 9.44% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
3-0 @ 5.66% (-0.02 -0.02)
3-1 @ 5.02% (-0.012 -0.01)
4-0 @ 2.26% (-0.012 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.23% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
4-1 @ 2.01% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Other @ 3.5%
Total : 54.06%
1-1 @ 11.81% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 8.34% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
2-2 @ 4.19% (0.0010000000000003 0)
Other @ 0.72%
Total : 25.05%
0-1 @ 7.4% (0.023000000000001 0.02)
1-2 @ 5.24% (0.011 0.01)
0-2 @ 3.28% (0.013 0.01)
1-3 @ 1.55% (0.004 0)
2-3 @ 1.24% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-3 @ 0.97% (0.005 0.01)
Other @ 1.2%
Total : 20.88%

How you voted: Ipswich vs Derby

Ipswich Town
61.4%
Draw
15.9%
Derby County
22.7%
88
Head to Head
Feb 13, 2019 7.45pm
Ipswich
1-1
Derby
Nolan (55')
Bishop (57'), Chalobah (63'), Pennington (94')
Lawrence (2')
Waghorn (21'), Holmes (57'), Bennett (85'), Johnson (94')
> Match Report
Aug 21, 2018 7.45pm
Derby
2-0
Ipswich
Ledley (59'), Lawrence (68')
Bryson (16'), Keogh (42')

Skuse (47'), Nsiala (67')
Dec 30, 2017 3pm
Ipswich
1-2
Derby
Garner (65')
Webster (43')
Winnall (13', 48')
Nov 28, 2017 7.45pm
Derby
0-1
Ipswich

Lawrence (33'), Russell (90'), Baird (90')
Connolly (5')
Chambers (58'), Webster (64'), Downes (82')
Jan 31, 2017 7.45pm
Ipswich
0-3
Derby
Bryson (9'), Ince (12'), Bent (45')
rhs 2.0
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> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Wycombe WanderersWycombe14102232161632
2Birmingham CityBirmingham1393124121230
3Wrexham1584322111128
4Stockport CountyStockport167632617927
5Barnsley157532419526
6Lincoln CityLincoln157532117426
7Mansfield TownMansfield137332015524
8Huddersfield TownHuddersfield147252114723
9Exeter CityExeter147251410423
10Reading147252221123
11Bolton WanderersBolton147252224-223
12Peterborough UnitedPeterborough156363127421
13Charlton AthleticCharlton145451515019
14Bristol Rovers155371621-518
15Stevenage155371116-518
16Northampton TownNorthampton154561821-317
17Rotherham UnitedRotherham154561418-417
18Blackpool154562128-717
19Wigan AthleticWigan143561212014
20Leyton Orient144281418-414
21Crawley TownCrawley163491427-1313
22Cambridge UnitedCambridge143291324-1111
23Burton Albion141581525-108
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury1522111327-148
> League One Full Table


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