League One

League One | Gameweek 16

Oct 21, 2022 at 8pm UK

Portman Road Stadium

Ipswich
1 - 0
Derby

Burns (67')
Morsy (10'), Woolfenden (90+7')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Chester (23'), Smith (51')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's League One clash between Ipswich Town and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ipswich Town

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Cambridge 1-0 Ipswich
Tuesday, October 18 at 7pm in EFL Trophy

Goals
for

Top scorers

Derby County

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Derby 1-3 Man City U21s
Tuesday, October 18 at 7pm in EFL Trophy

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Ipswich Town 1-1 Derby County

There is not a huge difference in the quality of these two sides, and we are expecting a close match on Friday night. Ipswich will be determined to close the gap on leaders Plymouth, but Derby should be good enough to secure a share of the spoils in this game. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ipswich Town win with a probability of 54.07%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 20.88%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ipswich Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.63%) and 2-1 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.81%), while for a Derby County win it was 0-1 (7.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Ipswich Town in this match.

Result
Ipswich Town	Draw	Derby County
54.07% ( -0.09)	25.06% ( 0.03)	20.88% ( 0.06)

Both teams to score 46.91% (

-0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.22% (

-0.06)

54.78% (

0.06)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.91% (

-0.05)

76.09% (

0.05)

Ipswich Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.75% (

-0.06)

20.25% (

0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.41% (

-0.1)

52.58% (

0.1)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

58.82% (

0.03)

41.18% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.28% (

0.03)

77.71% (

-0.03)

Score Analysis

Ipswich Town 54.06%

Derby County 20.88%

Draw 25.05%

Ipswich Town	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 13.31% 2-0 @ 10.63% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 9.44% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 5.66% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 5.02% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 2.26% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.23% ( -0) 4-1 @ 2.01% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.5% Total : 54.06%	1-1 @ 11.81% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 8.34% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 4.19% ( 0) Other @ 0.72% Total : 25.05%	0-1 @ 7.4% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 5.24% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 3.28% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1.55% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.24% ( 0) 0-3 @ 0.97% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.2% Total : 20.88%