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League One
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League One | Gameweek 16
Oct 21, 2022 at 8pm UK
Portman Road Stadium
Derby logo

Ipswich
1 - 0
Derby

Burns (67')
Morsy (10'), Woolfenden (90+7')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Chester (23'), Smith (51')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's League One clash between Ipswich Town and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ipswich Town

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Cambridge 1-0 Ipswich
Tuesday, October 18 at 7pm in EFL Trophy

Derby County

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Derby 1-3 Man City U21s
Tuesday, October 18 at 7pm in EFL Trophy

We said: Ipswich Town 1-1 Derby County

 There is not a huge difference in the quality of these two sides, and we are expecting a close match on Friday night. Ipswich will be determined to close the gap on leaders Plymouth, but Derby should be good enough to secure a share of the spoils in this game. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ipswich Town win with a probability of 54.07%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 20.88%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ipswich Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.63%) and 2-1 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.81%), while for a Derby County win it was 0-1 (7.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Ipswich Town in this match.

Result
Ipswich TownDrawDerby County
54.07% (-0.094000000000001 -0.09) 25.06% (0.032999999999998 0.03) 20.88% (0.061 0.06)
Both teams to score 46.91% (-0.009999999999998 -0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
45.22% (-0.058 -0.06)54.78% (0.056000000000004 0.06)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.91% (-0.047000000000001 -0.05)76.09% (0.046000000000006 0.05)
Ipswich Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.75% (-0.060999999999993 -0.06)20.25% (0.059999999999999 0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.41% (-0.097000000000001 -0.1)52.58% (0.095999999999997 0.1)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
58.82% (0.032000000000004 0.03)41.18% (-0.033000000000001 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
22.28% (0.026 0.03)77.71% (-0.027999999999992 -0.03)
Score Analysis
    Ipswich Town 54.06%
    Derby County 20.88%
    Draw 25.05%
Ipswich TownDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 13.31%
2-0 @ 10.63% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-1 @ 9.44% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
3-0 @ 5.66% (-0.02 -0.02)
3-1 @ 5.02% (-0.012 -0.01)
4-0 @ 2.26% (-0.012 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.23% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
4-1 @ 2.01% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Other @ 3.5%
Total : 54.06%
1-1 @ 11.81% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 8.34% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
2-2 @ 4.19% (0.0010000000000003 0)
Other @ 0.72%
Total : 25.05%
0-1 @ 7.4% (0.023000000000001 0.02)
1-2 @ 5.24% (0.011 0.01)
0-2 @ 3.28% (0.013 0.01)
1-3 @ 1.55% (0.004 0)
2-3 @ 1.24% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-3 @ 0.97% (0.005 0.01)
Other @ 1.2%
Total : 20.88%

How you voted: Ipswich vs Derby

Ipswich Town
61.4%
Draw
15.9%
Derby County
22.7%
88
Head to Head
Feb 13, 2019 7.45pm
Ipswich
1-1
Derby
Nolan (55')
Bishop (57'), Chalobah (63'), Pennington (94')
Lawrence (2')
Waghorn (21'), Holmes (57'), Bennett (85'), Johnson (94')
> Match Report
Aug 21, 2018 7.45pm
Derby
2-0
Ipswich
Ledley (59'), Lawrence (68')
Bryson (16'), Keogh (42')

Skuse (47'), Nsiala (67')
Dec 30, 2017 3pm
Ipswich
1-2
Derby
Garner (65')
Webster (43')
Winnall (13', 48')
Nov 28, 2017 7.45pm
Derby
0-1
Ipswich

Lawrence (33'), Russell (90'), Baird (90')
Connolly (5')
Chambers (58'), Webster (64'), Downes (82')
Jan 31, 2017 7.45pm
Ipswich
0-3
Derby
Bryson (9'), Ince (12'), Bent (45')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Birmingham CityBirmingham34247356223479
2Wycombe WanderersWycombe351911561332868
3Wrexham35208750282268
4Stockport CountyStockport361711852341862
5Charlton AthleticCharlton35179946311560
6Bolton WanderersBolton35186115751660
7Huddersfield TownHuddersfield361771247331458
8Reading351510104945455
9Leyton Orient361651551371453
10Barnsley36157145051-152
11Blackpool35111595247548
12Stevenage35139133335-248
13Lincoln CityLincoln361210144845346
14Rotherham UnitedRotherham35128153941-244
15Wigan AthleticWigan351110143234-243
16Mansfield TownMansfield35118164148-741
17Northampton TownNorthampton361011153653-1741
18Exeter CityExeter34117163750-1340
19Peterborough UnitedPeterborough35109165260-839
20Bristol Rovers35116183653-1739
21Burton Albion36712173653-1733
22Crawley TownCrawley3579193865-2730
23Cambridge UnitedCambridge3578203458-2429
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury3677223460-2628
> League One Full Table


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