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League One
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League One | Gameweek 16
Oct 21, 2022 at 8pm UK
Portman Road Stadium
Derby logo

Ipswich
1 - 0
Derby

Burns (67')
Morsy (10'), Woolfenden (90+7')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Chester (23'), Smith (51')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's League One clash between Ipswich Town and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ipswich Town

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Cambridge 1-0 Ipswich
Tuesday, October 18 at 7pm in EFL Trophy

Derby County

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Derby 1-3 Man City U21s
Tuesday, October 18 at 7pm in EFL Trophy

We said: Ipswich Town 1-1 Derby County

 There is not a huge difference in the quality of these two sides, and we are expecting a close match on Friday night. Ipswich will be determined to close the gap on leaders Plymouth, but Derby should be good enough to secure a share of the spoils in this game. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ipswich Town win with a probability of 54.07%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 20.88%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ipswich Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.63%) and 2-1 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.81%), while for a Derby County win it was 0-1 (7.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Ipswich Town in this match.

Result
Ipswich TownDrawDerby County
54.07% (-0.094000000000001 -0.09) 25.06% (0.032999999999998 0.03) 20.88% (0.061 0.06)
Both teams to score 46.91% (-0.009999999999998 -0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
45.22% (-0.058 -0.06)54.78% (0.056000000000004 0.06)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.91% (-0.047000000000001 -0.05)76.09% (0.046000000000006 0.05)
Ipswich Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.75% (-0.060999999999993 -0.06)20.25% (0.059999999999999 0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.41% (-0.097000000000001 -0.1)52.58% (0.095999999999997 0.1)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
58.82% (0.032000000000004 0.03)41.18% (-0.033000000000001 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
22.28% (0.026 0.03)77.71% (-0.027999999999992 -0.03)
Score Analysis
    Ipswich Town 54.06%
    Derby County 20.88%
    Draw 25.05%
Ipswich TownDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 13.31%
2-0 @ 10.63% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-1 @ 9.44% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
3-0 @ 5.66% (-0.02 -0.02)
3-1 @ 5.02% (-0.012 -0.01)
4-0 @ 2.26% (-0.012 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.23% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
4-1 @ 2.01% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Other @ 3.5%
Total : 54.06%
1-1 @ 11.81% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 8.34% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
2-2 @ 4.19% (0.0010000000000003 0)
Other @ 0.72%
Total : 25.05%
0-1 @ 7.4% (0.023000000000001 0.02)
1-2 @ 5.24% (0.011 0.01)
0-2 @ 3.28% (0.013 0.01)
1-3 @ 1.55% (0.004 0)
2-3 @ 1.24% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-3 @ 0.97% (0.005 0.01)
Other @ 1.2%
Total : 20.88%

How you voted: Ipswich vs Derby

Ipswich Town
61.4%
Draw
15.9%
Derby County
22.7%
88
Head to Head
Feb 13, 2019 7.45pm
Ipswich
1-1
Derby
Nolan (55')
Bishop (57'), Chalobah (63'), Pennington (94')
Lawrence (2')
Waghorn (21'), Holmes (57'), Bennett (85'), Johnson (94')
> Match Report
Aug 21, 2018 7.45pm
Derby
2-0
Ipswich
Ledley (59'), Lawrence (68')
Bryson (16'), Keogh (42')

Skuse (47'), Nsiala (67')
Dec 30, 2017 3pm
Ipswich
1-2
Derby
Garner (65')
Webster (43')
Winnall (13', 48')
Nov 28, 2017 7.45pm
Derby
0-1
Ipswich

Lawrence (33'), Russell (90'), Baird (90')
Connolly (5')
Chambers (58'), Webster (64'), Downes (82')
Jan 31, 2017 7.45pm
Ipswich
0-3
Derby
Bryson (9'), Ince (12'), Bent (45')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Birmingham CityBirmingham23165241172453
2Wycombe WanderersWycombe25156450272351
3Wrexham26156538201851
4Huddersfield TownHuddersfield24145537191847
5Barnsley2512673933642
6Reading2412573933641
7Stockport CountyStockport25108737271038
8Leyton Orient24114932221037
9Mansfield TownMansfield2311483126537
10Bolton WanderersBolton2411493637-137
11Charlton AthleticCharlton239772721634
12Lincoln CityLincoln258892830-232
13Rotherham UnitedRotherham248792424031
14Stevenage238781820-231
15Exeter CityExeter2494112831-331
16Blackpool247983235-330
17Wigan AthleticWigan2376102123-227
18Northampton TownNorthampton2568112439-1526
19Peterborough UnitedPeterborough2474134146-525
20Bristol Rovers2474132238-1625
21Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury2555152645-1920
22Crawley TownCrawley2355132443-1920
23Cambridge UnitedCambridge2445152243-2117
24Burton Albion2428142038-1814
> League One Full Table


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