League One

League One | Gameweek 11

Feb 28, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Pride Park Stadium

Derby
2 - 0
Cheltenham

McGoldrick (43'), Dobbin (67')
White (59'), Sibley (87')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Jackson (26'), Rea (55'), Bonds (56')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's League One clash between Derby County and Cheltenham Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Barnsley 4-1 Derby
Saturday, February 25 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Cheltenham Town

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Portsmouth 4-0 Cheltenham
Saturday, February 25 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Derby County 3-1 Cheltenham Town

Derby will be keen to bounce back from Saturday's disappointing result, and having won eight of their last 10 home league games, we think that they will claim all three points against a Cheltenham side that are bereft of confidence. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 74.89%. A draw had a probability of 16.6% and a win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 8.49%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.71%) and 3-0 (10.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.82%), while for a Cheltenham Town win it was 0-1 (3.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 14.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Derby County in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Derby County.

Result
Derby County	Draw	Cheltenham Town
74.89% ( 0)	16.62%	8.49% ( -0)

Both teams to score 41.18% (

-0)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.95% (

-0)

45.06% (

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.6%

67.4% (

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.62%

10.38%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

66.1% (

33.9%

Cheltenham Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

45.95% (

-0)

54.05% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

12.69% (

-0)

87.31% (

Score Analysis

Derby County 74.89%

Cheltenham Town 8.49%

Draw 16.62%

Derby County	Draw	Cheltenham Town
2-0 @ 14.39% 1-0 @ 12.71% 3-0 @ 10.87% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 8.86% ( -0) 3-1 @ 6.69% 4-0 @ 6.16% 4-1 @ 3.79% 5-0 @ 2.79% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.06% 5-1 @ 1.72% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.17% 6-0 @ 1.05% Other @ 2.65% Total : 74.89%	1-1 @ 7.82% 0-0 @ 5.61% 2-2 @ 2.72% Other @ 0.46% Total : 16.62%	0-1 @ 3.45% 1-2 @ 2.41% ( -0) 0-2 @ 1.06% Other @ 1.57% Total : 8.49%