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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Plymouth Argyle win with a probability of 41.27%. A win for Port Vale had a probability of 32.47% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Plymouth Argyle win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.7%) and 0-2 (7.22%). The likeliest Port Vale win was 1-0 (8.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Plymouth Argyle would win this match.
Result | ||
Port Vale | Draw | Plymouth Argyle |
32.47% ( 0.06) | 26.26% ( 0.02) | 41.27% ( -0.07) |
Both teams to score 52.65% ( -0.03) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
48.12% ( -0.05) | 51.88% ( 0.06) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
26.37% ( -0.04) | 73.63% ( 0.05) |
Port Vale Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.04% ( 0.01) | 29.97% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.93% ( 0.01) | 66.08% ( -0.01) |
Plymouth Argyle Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.18% ( -0.06) | 24.82% ( 0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
40.59% ( -0.08) | 59.41% ( 0.09) |
Score Analysis |
Port Vale | Draw | Plymouth Argyle |
1-0 @ 8.96% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 7.53% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 5.4% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 3.02% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2.17% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.11% ( -0) 4-1 @ 0.91% ( 0) Other @ 2.36% Total : 32.47% | 1-1 @ 12.49% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.44% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.24% ( -0) 3-3 @ 0.98% ( -0) Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.26% | 0-1 @ 10.36% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 8.7% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 7.22% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 4.04% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 3.35% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.44% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.41% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 1.17% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.58% Total : 41.27% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 11 | 12 | 29 |
2 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 16 | 10 | 26 |
3 | Wrexham | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 10 | 11 | 25 |
4 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 24 |
5 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 24 |
6 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 19 | 3 | 23 |
7 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 22 |
8 | Barnsley | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 18 | 3 | 22 |
9 | Reading | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 20 | 1 | 22 |
10 | Stockport CountyStockport | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 21 |
11 | Exeter CityExeter | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 19 |
12 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 19 |
13 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 25 | 26 | -1 | 18 |
14 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 17 |
15 | Stevenage | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 17 |
16 | Blackpool | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 16 |
17 | Bristol Rovers | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 16 |
18 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 15 |
19 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 14 |
20 | Leyton Orient | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 11 |
21 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 10 |
22 | Crawley TownCrawley | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 10 |
23 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 25 | -12 | 8 |
24 | Burton Albion | 12 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 25 | -12 | 4 |
> League One Full Table |