We said: Rotherham United 2-1 Stevenage
Rotherham have only dropped points against Wrexham during their last three home matches across all competitions, so we are expecting a competent performance from the Millers this weekend.
Stevenage's confidence would have taken a major hit following the midweek loss to Cambridge on home soil, meaning that we cannot envisage the Boro picking up anything tangible from their trip to South Yorkshire.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rotherham United win with a probability of 39.68%. A win for Stevenage had a probability of 33.13% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rotherham United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.36%) and 2-0 (7.2%). The likeliest Stevenage win was 0-1 (9.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.89%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Rotherham United would win this match.