Carlisle have drawn a number of games against some of the better sides in the fourth tier recently, including Stockport County and Northampton Town, so it would not be a surprise if nothing separates the two sides.
In truth, Simpson would probably take a draw in the first leg, as although Bradford's home form has not been sensational, it is likely to be a very tough place to go for a game of this magnitude, with the crowd in full voice.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bradford City win with a probability of 39.74%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 32.43% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bradford City win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.22%) and 2-0 (7.43%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (10.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Bradford City in this match.
0.12) 
-0.09) 
