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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MK Dons win with a probability of 53.52%. A win for Crawley Town had a probability of 24% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a MK Dons win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.72%) and 2-0 (8.2%). The likeliest Crawley Town win was 1-2 (6.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.37%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that MK Dons would win this match.
Result | ||
MK Dons | Draw | Crawley Town |
53.52% ( 0.06) | 22.49% ( -0.02) | 24% ( -0.04) |
Both teams to score 59% ( 0.02) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
59.28% ( 0.05) | 40.72% ( -0.05) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
36.9% ( 0.05) | 63.1% ( -0.05) |
MK Dons Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.77% ( 0.04) | 15.23% ( -0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
56.1% ( 0.07) | 43.9% ( -0.07) |
Crawley Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.6% ( -0.01) | 30.4% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.4% ( -0.01) | 66.6% ( 0.01) |
Score Analysis |
MK Dons | Draw | Crawley Town |
2-1 @ 9.76% ( 0) 1-0 @ 8.72% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 8.2% ( 0) 3-1 @ 6.12% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 5.14% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 3.65% ( 0) 4-1 @ 2.88% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 2.42% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.72% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1.08% ( 0) 5-0 @ 0.91% ( 0) Other @ 2.92% Total : 53.52% | 1-1 @ 10.37% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.81% 0-0 @ 4.63% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.45% ( 0) Other @ 0.22% Total : 22.48% | 1-2 @ 6.18% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 5.52% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 3.28% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.45% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.31% 0-3 @ 1.3% ( -0) Other @ 2.96% Total : 24% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 33 |
2 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 28 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 28 |
4 | Walsall | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 12 | 27 |
5 | MK Dons | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
6 | Notts County | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 27 |
7 | Grimsby Town | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 25 |
8 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 23 |
9 | Gillingham | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 23 |
10 | AFC Wimbledon | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 22 |
11 | Chesterfield | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 22 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 22 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
14 | Salford City | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Newport CountyNewport | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 20 |
16 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 18 |
17 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 18 |
18 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 17 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 17 |
20 | Bromley | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
21 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 14 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 13 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 12 |
24 | Morecambe | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 10 |
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