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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 43.13%. A win for Sutton United had a probability of 29.02% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.49%) and 2-0 (8.35%). The likeliest Sutton United win was 0-1 (9.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.02%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.
Result | ||
Newport County | Draw | Sutton United |
43.13% ( 0.13) | 27.85% ( -0) | 29.02% ( -0.13) |
Both teams to score 46.47% ( -0.07) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
40.92% ( -0.05) | 59.08% ( 0.05) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
20.47% ( -0.04) | 79.54% ( 0.04) |
Newport County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.85% ( 0.05) | 27.15% ( -0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
37.45% ( 0.06) | 62.55% ( -0.05) |
Sutton United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
63.79% ( -0.13) | 36.21% ( 0.13) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
27.01% ( -0.13) | 72.99% ( 0.13) |
Score Analysis |
Newport County | Draw | Sutton United |
1-0 @ 12.81% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 8.49% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 8.35% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 3.69% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 3.63% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 1.87% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.2% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.18% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.89% Total : 43.12% | 1-1 @ 13.02% 0-0 @ 9.83% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 4.31% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.69% Total : 27.85% | 0-1 @ 9.99% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 6.61% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 5.07% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 2.24% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 1.72% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.46% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.93% Total : 29.02% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 33 |
2 | Walsall | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 15 | 13 | 30 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 29 |
4 | Notts County | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 28 |
5 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 28 |
6 | MK Dons | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
7 | Chesterfield | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 25 |
8 | Grimsby Town | 17 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 25 |
9 | AFC Wimbledon | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 23 |
10 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 23 |
11 | Gillingham | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 23 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 22 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
14 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Salford City | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
16 | Newport CountyNewport | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 21 |
17 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 21 |
18 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 18 |
19 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 17 |
20 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 17 |
21 | Bromley | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 17 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 13 |
23 | Morecambe | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 29 | -12 | 13 |
24 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 13 |
> League Two Full Table |