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Championship header 2

League Two
Sutton United
League Two | Gameweek 25
Jan 1, 2023 at 3pm UK
The Borough Sports Ground
AFC Wimbledon

Sutton
2 - 1
AFC Wimbledon

Randall (13'), Bugiel (69')
Bugiel (62')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Davison (40')
Woodyard (9')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's League Two clash between Sutton United and AFC Wimbledon, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Sutton United

All competitions
League Two
Last Game: Sutton 2-1 Gillingham
Thursday, December 29 at 7.45pm in League Two

AFC Wimbledon

All competitions
League Two
Last Game: Colchester 1-2 AFC Wimbledon
Thursday, December 29 at 7.45pm in League Two

We said: Sutton United 1-2 AFC Wimbledon

 Sutton's form has improved recently, but it is still no comparison to the dramatic turnaround orchestrated by Johnnie Jackson at Wimbledon. As such, we expect the visitors to secure a narrow victory in a closely-contested affair, winning by the same scoreline as they did on Thursday night. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sutton United win with a probability of 48.41%. A draw had a probability of 27.9% and a win for AFC Wimbledon had a probability of 23.66%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sutton United win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.07%) and 2-1 (8.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.71%), while for an AFC Wimbledon win it was 0-1 (9.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sutton United would win this match.

Result
Sutton UnitedDrawAFC Wimbledon
48.41% (0.061 0.06) 27.93% (-0.093 -0.09) 23.66% (0.032 0.03)
Both teams to score 42.51% (0.259 0.26)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
37.82% (0.317 0.32)62.18% (-0.314 -0.31)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
18.13% (0.232 0.23)81.87% (-0.22999999999999 -0.23)
Sutton United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.09% (0.17599999999999 0.18)25.91% (-0.175 -0.17)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.1% (0.236 0.24)60.9% (-0.236 -0.24)
AFC Wimbledon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
57.38% (0.215 0.21)42.62% (-0.21400000000001 -0.21)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
21.03% (0.184 0.18)78.97% (-0.18300000000001 -0.18)
Score Analysis
    Sutton United 48.4%
    AFC Wimbledon 23.66%
    Draw 27.92%
Sutton UnitedDrawAFC Wimbledon
1-0 @ 14.91% (-0.1 -0.1)
2-0 @ 10.07% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-1 @ 8.59% (0.035 0.04)
3-0 @ 4.53% (0.015 0.01)
3-1 @ 3.87% (0.034 0.03)
3-2 @ 1.65% (0.025 0.02)
4-0 @ 1.53% (0.013 0.01)
4-1 @ 1.31% (0.018 0.02)
Other @ 1.95%
Total : 48.4%
1-1 @ 12.71% (-0.02 -0.02)
0-0 @ 11.04% (-0.13 -0.13)
2-2 @ 3.66% (0.036 0.04)
Other @ 0.51%
Total : 27.92%
0-1 @ 9.42% (-0.055000000000001 -0.06)
1-2 @ 5.42% (0.028 0.03)
0-2 @ 4.02%
1-3 @ 1.54% (0.017 0.02)
0-3 @ 1.14% (0.0069999999999999 0.01)
2-3 @ 1.04% (0.016 0.02)
Other @ 1.08%
Total : 23.66%

How you voted: Sutton vs AFC Wimbledon

Sutton United
77.8%
Draw
11.1%
AFC Wimbledon
11.1%
9
Head to Head
Nov 22, 2022 7.45pm
Second Round
AFC Wimbledon
1-0
Sutton
Hudlin (17')

Bugiel (56')
Oct 15, 2022 3pm
AFC Wimbledon
0-1
Sutton

Pell (13')
Eastmond (30')
Nov 9, 2021 7.45pm
Sutton
1-0
AFC Wimbledon
Wilson (47')

Guinness-Walker (71')
Jan 17, 2017 7.45pm
Third Round
AFC Wimbledon
1-3
Sutton
Elliott (10')
Kelly (57'), Barnett (85')
Robinson (15')
Deacon (75'), Biamou (90'), Fitchett (96')
Deacon (34'), Spence (43'), Collins (82')
Jan 7, 2017 3pm
Third Round
Sutton
0-0
AFC Wimbledon

Downer (25'), Biamou (47'), Collins (60'), Bailey (75')

Reeves (22'), Robinson (61')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Walsall382010867432470
2Bradford CityBradford38209952322069
3AFC Wimbledon3818101051282364
4Port Vale381713848381064
5Doncaster RoversDoncaster371891054441063
6Notts County3817111056391762
7Grimsby Town38185155254-259
8Colchester UnitedColchester38141684637958
9Crewe AlexandraCrewe38141684538758
10Salford City371411124441353
11Chesterfield3714101358441452
12Bromley381313124947252
13Fleetwood TownFleetwood381214124946350
14Cheltenham TownCheltenham381311145155-450
15Swindon TownSwindon381115125555048
16BarrowBarrow38139164345-248
17MK Dons38137184955-646
18Newport CountyNewport38137184862-1446
19Gillingham371110163139-843
20Accrington StanleyAccrington381011174555-1041
21Harrogate TownHarrogate38118192948-1941
22Tranmere RoversTranmere38813172855-2737
23Carlisle UnitedCarlisle38710213056-2631
24Morecambe3886243357-2430
> League Two Full Table


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