League Two | Gameweek 20
Dec 3, 2022 at 1pm UK
Brunton Park
We said: Carlisle United 2-1 Sutton United
Despite Carlisle heading into this fixture 10 points clear of their opponents, we expect a closely-fought affair in Cumbria on Saturday.
However, Simpson is building something special during his second spell there, and his side should just edge past Sutton.
Read more.
Data Analysis Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 43.86% . A win for Sutton United had a probability of 28.73% and a draw had a probability of 27.4% .
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.5% . The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.66%) and 2-0 (8.4%) . The likeliest Sutton United win was 0-1 (9.6%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.89%) . The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood .
Result Carlisle United Draw Sutton United 43.86% ( 0.16) 27.41% ( -0.07) 28.73% ( -0.09)
Both teams to score 47.55% ( 0.14)
42.36% ( 0.2) 57.64% ( -0.2)
21.59% ( 0.16) 78.4% ( -0.16)
73.9% ( 0.17) 26.1% ( -0.17)
Over 1.5 Under 1.5 38.84% ( 0.23) 61.16% ( -0.23)
64.34% ( 0.04) 35.65% ( -0.04)
Over 1.5 Under 1.5 27.57% ( 0.04) 72.42% ( -0.04)
Carlisle United 43.86%
Sutton United 28.73%
Draw 27.41%
Carlisle United Draw Sutton United 1-0 @ 12.5% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 8.66% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 8.4% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 3.88% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 3.76% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 2% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.3% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 1.26% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.11% Total : 43.86% 1-1 @ 12.89% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 9.31% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 4.46% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.75% Total : 27.41% 0-1 @ 9.6% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 6.65% ( -0) 0-2 @ 4.95% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 2.29% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.7% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.54% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.01% Total : 28.73%
How you voted: Carlisle vs Sutton
Carlisle United
Draw
Sutton United
7
rhs 2.0
LT: 2024-07-07 15:05:32
Tuesday, July 9
Wednesday, July 10
Sunday, July 14
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